Pure Gold
If you have seen my latest WR projections, you know I am insanely high on Golden Tate. I have him ranked 13th in PPR. Before you write me off thinking I am just another fantasy lune, give me a chance to explain.
Now that Calvin is gone, there will be bunches (150) of targets unclaimed for next year.
Here are Tate’s splits the last two years when Calvin didn’t play.
These splits don’t even account for 2015 where Calvin was used as a “decoy”. In these games, (against NO and STL) Tate scored 27 and 22 fantasy points.
I understand that both of these examples are small sample sizes, but they can at least highlight the upside.
To add onto Tates potential for 2016, Jim Bob Cooter became the OC in the middle of last year, making Tate a much more productive wideout. Here are his splits last year before and after he became OC:
So when projecting Tate for 2016, I gave him 140 targets. That is only 12 more than last year, which is very realistic if not a lowball considering the departure of Calvin. I then averaged his catch rate for the last two years (70%) giving him a total of 98 catches.
The next part of projecting him brought up an odd question. What happened to his YPR (Yards-per-reception) in 2015?! His career YPR was was 12.88 and in his first year with Stafford and the lions (2014) it was 13.4. Last year it was 9. I expect that to return closer to his career norm, so I gave him 11.5. This would give him 1127 yards for the season.
Projecting TD’s is generally a total crapshoot but If you watched the Lions after Jim Bob Cooter took over you know that he got very creative in the RZ, especially with Tate. Some people may say he will be double teamed now that Calvin is gone, but if teams double team Tate, they would be leaving open Marvin Jones and 6’4 Eric Ebron. I ended up giving him 8, one less than the # of TDs he would have been on pace for with JBC at OC.
If you add this reasonable projection up you get 258.7 fantasy points in PPR scoring for Tate in 2016. In PPR that would have made him the #13 WR in Fantasy in 2015, #12 in 2014 and #14 in 2013.
Now the cool part about this projection is that there is plenty of upside beyond this. The chances Tate receives more than 12 extra targets in Calvins absence is high. It is also fully possible, if not likely for Tate to bring his YPR back up to around 13. If both of these possibilities occur, Tate has the upside to finish the year with over 300 fantasy points, making him a rock-solid WR1.
Guess what? It gets even better. His ADP is 4.09 according to fantasyfootballcalculator.com. You could have him as your 2nd or even 3rd wide receiver for you RB-hating folk. All of this potential in the 4th round?!
After reading these stats which should give you ample reason to draft Tate, you can now see some. I have teamed up with Alex Rollins (@BHanalysis) to make an awesome video on Golden Tate. Alex analyzes some of Tate's plays from 2015, showing you why you should draft Golden Tate this year in Fantasy.
Watch here:
