Week 11 Draftkings
Last week wasn't the best for me as far as DFS goes. Way too many picks busted or just didn't hit the 3-4x value needed to cash. This week there are a lot of plays that are being overlooked due to Charcandrick West and Danny Amendola being priced so low. I like both of them but they will both be so highly owned in tournaments that it may not be worth using them. Here are my plays for this week:
QB:
Derek Carr ($6,300)- Carr has passed for over 289 yards and 2 TD’s every week since the bye. He now gets to play against the Lions. The Lions secondary is growing and getting better, but still isn’t very good. Still way underpriced at $6,300 Carrs price gives you the flexibility to fit better players into your lineup at other positions. I don’t think it is necessary to stack him with Cooper or Crabtree either because I don’t see either having a spectacular game, just both of them having solid ones.
Matt Stafford ($5,400)- Speaking of bad secondary’s, the Oakland secondary isn’t great either. This game has one of the highest over/unders of the week and should provide for some high scoring entertainment. Calvin still isn’t fully healthy but that won’t stop him from dominating. Stafford should be throwing the ball a good amount like he always does, and earlier in the year he put up 37.9 points against another weak secondary in Chicago, so it is still fully possible for him to have a good game. He is only a tournament play, and I like his chances of exceeding value and having a good week.
Cam Newton ($6,900)- The matchup looks bad on DK with the OPRK saying 10th and hopefully that draws attention away from Cam. The Redskins have trouble against running QB’s and with the amount the Panthers run the ball with him he should have a good game. He is a good cash game QB with the usual tournament upside.
RB:
Darren McFadden ($5,000)- Mcfadden didn’t have much success last week and wasn’t used as much as usual, but with Romo back I expect this to change. Team’s can’t stack the box anymore now that they have a competent QB in the game. For some reason everyone expects the Cowboys to come out and throw a bunch with Romo back, but I expect their gameplan to stay about the same. Run the ball early and often with their elite O-line, and throw when the need too. It also helps that the Dolphins run D has been atrocious the past few weeks. I like Mcfadden as a fantastic tournament play and to have a relatively low ownership % because everyone will be on West, Mcfadden is $500 more expensive then West, and he had an off game last week.
Marshawn Lynch ($6,700)- If you saw my tweet earlier in the week, I did a game split using the Rotoviz app. It showed that over the past two years when Marshawn lynch is at home against the 49ers, he has averaged 24 fantasy points. I did this split because I know he has had success at home, but now with a cake matchup he should have a great day. As long as he is healthy he should get plenty of carries and beast his way to a huge game. The Seahawks are favored by a ridiculous 13 points, so Lynch could have a monster workload if the game gets out of hand early.
Charcandrick West ($4,500)- West and Amendola will be two of the highest owned players of the week because of their low salary and good situations. West matches up against San Diego who has been letting up an absurd amount of points to opposing RB’s. The Chiefs have seemed committed when it comes to getting him the ball. For this price you can’t really beat the matchup and workload.
WR:
Stevie Johnson ($3,900)- Stevie Johnson may be my favorite play of the week. After Keenan Allen went down for the year I knew Stevie would be targeted loads. His only game so far without Allen resulted in 7 catches for 68 yards. He got tripped up at the one yard line on a ridiculously lucky tackle and should have scored. Even without that touchdown, 13.8 points for someone priced below 4K is excellent. This week he gets to play against the secondary giving up the MOST points to WR’s this year, the Chiefs. A 10 catch game with a touchdown is fully in reach for this PPR monster. He is a great pivot off of Amendola who will likely be owned by a ridiculous amount of people.
Mike Evans ($7,300)- Mike Evans dropped way too many balls last week. It was heartbreaking to watch but he was targeted so much that he still puts up great stats. V-Jax isn’t going to play again this week and its looking like ASJ won’t either. That means another week of Evans receiving 12+ targets. He gets a solid matchup against the Eagles secondary and should have a great game with the upside to be the #1 WR this week if he can hold onto the ball.
Demaryius Thomas ($7,300)- This is another low ownership play. Just because Peyton’s out doesn’t mean that Demaryius can’t be good. If you are curious to how he did pre-Peyton, look up the AFC wildcard game, Denver v Pittsburgh with Tim Tebow at QB. Anyways, Peyton hasn’t been able to get Demaryius the ball as much as he wants, and after Osweiler came in he was targeting Demaryius often. I don’t see anyone on the Bears being able to guard Demaryius at all this week either. He could have a killer game.
Danny Amendola ($4,000)- Amendola is likely to be one of the highest owned players this week and rightfully so. Edelman is out for the year and Amendola is a great slot receiver when healthy. The Bills struggle to cover the slot receiver so he should be able to put up some good stats. He is a good building block for teams and including both Stevie and Amendola in lineups gives you unbelievable flexibility when it comes to every other position.
TE:
Jason Witten ($5,100)- I touched on this a little bit with Mcfadden but now that Romo is back the Dallas offense should be much improved. Witten is Romo’s security blanket and while I don’t expect the Cowboys to pass a lot, he could be targeted on a high % of their passes. He should turn in a solid game
Reed ($4,900)- Another one of those guys I can’t keep off this list. He is targeted very often and is too inexpensive to not have him here. As long as Josh Norman doesn’t slide in to cover the TE he should be able to post good #’s.
D/ST:
Seahawks ($4,000)
Falcons ($3,400)
