Top Plays for Week 1 on Draftkings

Sep 9, 2015
9 min read

Every week I will be highlighting my top 3 plays for cash games (50/50’s and Head to Head’s) and tournaments on Draftkings at each position! There will be some players that I have in both cash and tournament plays because they have a high floor and ceiling. There are loads of questions going into week 1 and it will be tougher to predict who is going to do well, but this makes it easier to have an unexpected player go crazy in a tournament and help you win some money! Also make sure to stay up to date with injuries up until gametime because players like Karlos Williams could instantly become a stud play in all formats if Lesean Mccoy sits. Anyways, these top plays are a combination of value and projected points:

CASH PLAYS (50/50’s, Head to Head's)

QB:

Matt Ryan (ATL)-$7,500

There isn’t much to dislike in this matchup for Ryan. He is playing at home, the Vegas total has the highest O/U of the week, the Eagles have a defense which is improved, but still not great by any means, and the Eagles were the fastest paced team in the NFL last year leading to more plays for both teams. All of these factors should lead to a shootout on Monday night. Ryan should be able to pass for around 300 yards and a few TD’s easily.

Aaron Rodgers (GB)-$8,600

This game could also be a high-scoring affair. Both Chicago and Green Bays defenses have been fairly horrible and there wasn’t enough change in the offseason to make anyone think that will change this year. Rodgers is missing his favorite target, Jordy Nelson, but still should be able to wreck the Chicago secondary with a combination of Davante Adams and Randall Cobb. Rodgers is a very safe play and should be in at least one of your lineups.

Peyton Manning (DEN)-$8,300

While I like Rodgers and Matt Ryan more week 1, don’t forget about Peyton. I am a huge believer that Peyton’s injury held him back and led to his decline last year. All the off-season talk about leaning on the run more won’t happen this week due to the Ravens stout run defense. The Ravens secondary is a weak spot though and Manning should be able to thread a few TD’s and a couple hundred yards in.

RB:

Eddie Lacy (GB)-$7,500

Adding onto Aaron Rodgers section about the matchup, Chicago’s run defense is also pretty poor. The packers will probably get up to a sizeable lead and may just run the clock out after Rodgers has done his damage He should have at least 20 carries based on this assumption of game flow, which would lead to around plenty of yards and a TD. Start Lacy with confidence.

Adrian Peterson (Min) - $7,700

I have a feeling Adrian Peterson is going to come back this year in a big way. Don’t let the OPRK (Opponent rank) on Draftkings from last year scare you, week 1’s matchup v the 49ers is favorable for Peterson. The 49ers had one of the worst off-seasons a team could have and have lost numerous starters on both sides of the ball. The Vikings upgraded their offense with the addition of Mike Wallace which should help Peterson in the fact that opposing defenses won’t stack the box. Peterson is a high upside high floor player week 1.

Demarco Murray (PHI) - $6,700

I know Murray will get injured at some point this season it's just a matter of time. Luckily this is a one week game and Murray is fully healthy for a prime matchup. Atlanta’s run D is poor and will be put to the test against Demarco Murray and Chip Kelly’s fast paced offense. Demarco Murray is a better fit for this running scheme then Shady was and should be very effective when healthy. He is expected to get the bulk of the carries against Atlanta which should lead to some huge fantasy points. Murray is another RB with high upside as well as a pretty high floor.

WR:

Davante Adams (GB) - $4,400

I bet Adams ownership % will be outrageous this week as he is extremely underpriced because of the Jordy injury but that doesn’t matter in 50/50’s . He will become the main starting outside receiver on the Packers for the rest of the season. This should lead to plenty of targets and a few big games here and there. Week 1 may be one of his big games as he plays Chicago. (If you can’t tell I like a lot of players from this game). He is one of the safest plays this week for how much he costs.

Jarvis Landry (MIA) – $5,600

Landry is a great cash player on Draftkings due to the full point PPR scoring format. With Devante parker still being brought back from injury and the Redskins having a fairly stout run defense, you can expect loads of short passes to Landry. He should gobble up targets v the poor Washington secondary. While he doesn’t have a high ceiling, he has a high floor and is a safe bet for solid numbers.

Allen Robinson (JAX) – $ 5,400

A popular mid to late round pick in redraft is unsurprisingly underpriced week 1. The Jags will most likely be losing for a good portion of the game which would lead to a lot of throws to their #1 WR. Julius Thomas is also out for the next few weeks which should lead to a boost in red zone looks for Robinson. As a rookie he was being targeted pretty heavily until his injury. Reporters out of Jaguars camp have said that Robinson looks “unbelievable”. I am confident Robinson will have a good week against an average panthers secondary.

TE: Only two TE’s, no reason to play anyone else this week for cash games.

Greg Olsen (CAR) - $ 5,300

Now that Kelvin Benjamin is out, play Olsen with extreme confidence. He should be a target monster. In the third preseason game when all the starters played he had 9 targets in the first half. Take what you want out of that since its preseason but that is a good full game pace and Cam didnt seem to mind to throw it his way almost every play.

Martellus Bennet (CHI) – $4,300

I have talked about the game a lot already on the Packers side but what about the bears? Bennet is a great option because Alshon Jeffrey is banged up and Kevin white is on PUP. One of the few healthy players, Bennet should have a big game. Once Cutler trusts a target he will throw to them regardless of how many people are on them and has a case of what is called "tunnel vision" Martellus Bennet and Eddie Royal are both trustworthy targets for Cutler and should be able to have great games against the Pack.

Tournaments (GPP’s)

Now it is time for the fun part. My favorite tournament plays, some are the same as above so I will just list them.

QB:

Matt Ryan (ATL) - $7,500

Pair with Julio and either Roddy White or Leonard Hankerson and enjoy this scoring bonanza.

Eli Manning (NYG) - $7,400

Yeah the Giants looked bad in pre-season but hey that should just help drive down ownership % for week 1 right? The giants get a prime matchup in which they are the underdogs by 6 points, and playing against the cowboys who won’t have their best corner (Orlando Scandrick). Odell Beckham will be trying to keep up with Dez Bryant as they both destroy opposing secondaries. Eli is a high upside play that will be throwing all night to try and keep up with the cowboys.

Andy Dalton (CIN) – $6,100

What?! I am recommending you to start ANDY DALTON in a tournament?! Why yes I am. Many people think that Jeremy hill will get 30 carries as the Bengals slowly eat away at the clock and the scoreboard and beat the raiders by a few TD’s. I am here to tell you I think otherwise. The Raiders look much improved in many places. Their D-line should actually be reputable this year being able to slow down opposing running backs, the passing game will be improved as Carr learns and now has Amari Cooper to throw to, and Latavius Murray is incredibly explosive. The Raiders secondary is a major weakspot that the Bengals will look to exploit. I also stumbled across some fantastic research done by Joe Goodberry talking about Andy Dalton and his statistical performances in games v certain opponents.

It has to do with playing a common or uncommon opponent. Andy Dalton is a different player against uncommon opponents. Here is some of the research that may help give you an idea of what Daltons week-1 statline may look like.

Here is a picture of Daltons stats in games that are uncommon or common :

So as you can see, Dalton performs significantly better against uncommon opponents, who he plays week 1 in Oakland. I used this research and averaged Daltons stats against uncommon opponents with what the Oakland D let up v opposing QB's last year. The statline looked something like this. 250 yards and 2 TD’s. That is the AVERAGE.

Say Dalton has a great game or an above average game against a poor raiders secondary, is it really a stretch to think he could throw for 50 more yards and another touchdown? I don’t think so. That would bring him up to 300 yards and 3 Td’s on the day. That would mean he would be scoring 27 points according to Draftkings scoring. For only $6,100 that is an absolute steal and allows you to stack your lineup in other places. I have made some tournament lineups using Andy Dalton and they look great, I will be using at least one.

Honorable Mention: Tyrod Taylor (BUF) $5,000, Sam Bradford (PHI) $6,900, Jameis Winston (TB) $ 6,000

RB:

Demarco Murray (PHI) – $6,700

As I said earlier, High floor high ceiling play, he could go crazy on the falcons poor run D.

Andre Ellington (ARI) – $6,400

He could have a fantastic game against the saints shoddy run defense. He showed some flashes of his explosiveness in preseason that we saw last year and now that he is healthy again he always has the potential to take any touch to the house. He should get ample carries as Bruce Arians has called him their bellcow. He is also a great receiving back boosting his status in Draftkings due to full point PPR. Huge upside here.

Latavius Murray (OAK) - $5,700

I touched on Murray a bit with my Dalton explanation but Murray always has the potential to have a huge game. Murray is a freak athletically and could be a force all season. Taking a closer look at this matchup, the Bengals run defense will be better than last year with Geno Atkins coming back but they still let up the 5th most amount of points to opposing running backs. The Bengals didn’t even play many great running backs last year but still gave up loads of yards and points. Le’veon Bell had one of his best games last year running and receiving against them racking up 185 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns on the ground while having 6 catches for 50 yards and a receiving touchdown. I am not saying Latavius Murray is as good as Lev Bell but he is capable of having a great game similar to that. As I said with the Dalton section I expect this game to be higher scoring and closer than you would expect. The upside is exactly what you look for with a player in this price range.

Honorable Mention: Ameer Abdullah (DET) $4,000, Danny Woodhead (SD) $3,700, Alfred Blue (HOU) $ 3,600, Chris Ivory (NYJ) $4,100

WR:

A.J. Green (CIN) - $7,800

See Andy Daltons section about why I like this matchup. Only thing I’d like to add is Green performs better away, which is good news because that’s where he is. He is lower priced then many other Stud WR-1’s and will hopefully have a lower ownership %. Healthy and ready to go, be ready for him to have a great game.

Dez Bryant (DAL) - $8,700

There isn’t much more to love about this matchup. Dez in primetime week 1, against the weak secondary of his rival team the Giants, not wanting to be outplayed by ODB and no stud RB to lean on anymore? Dez ripped the Giants last year both times he played them and he should do the same in week 1. Dez may be my favorite play of the week and is in numerous lineups.

Julio Jones (ATL) - $9,300

See Matt Ryans section. Julio is the most expensive player of the week, but rightfully so. He has a great matchup and is expected to have a huge year. Stacking Julio and Matt Ryan will be a common play this year but should put up massive totals.

Honorable Mention: Randall Cobb (GB) $8,000, Stevie Johnson (SD) $3,700, John Brown (AZ) $4,500, Eddie Royal (CHI) $3,900, Davante Adams (GB) $4,400.

TE:

Martellus Bennet (CHI) – $4,300

He is Chicago’s best red zone option for week 1 and has the upside to score more than once.

Travis Kelce (KC) - $4,800

Not a great matchup as far as the #s go but Kelce is a boom or bust player that can help you place in a tournament. Zeus always has big upside.

Tyler EIfert (CIN) – $3,500

A cheaper play that goes well with the Dalton stack. Now that Gresham is gone Eifert should play a big role in the offense. He was also described as “uncoverable” by many beat reporters. Very good low risk high reward play.

Honorable Mention: Jordan Cameron (MIA) $3,800, Jason Witten (DAL) $4,000, Owen Daniels (DEN) $3,400

DEFENSE: