Love/Hate Mid-Tier WR's
We have a new writer on board with the Fantasy Football Matrix team! He lays out his Mid-tier WR Love/Hate for 2015 Fantasy Football Redraft Leagues. One of the keys to winning your league in his opinion is by drafting well in the middle tiers! Everyone thinks about getting studs with the first few picks, and the best “sleepers” late in the draft but a few good middle round picks really make a difference.
Hate
JETS WR’s (Brandon Marshall + Eric Decker) – This offense is too hit or miss for me. There is a new coaching staff, and they still don’t have a consistent enough quarterback to put up numbers to match where you are drafting them, especially Marshall. I think they will continue to run the ball and won’t put up enough points to make both relevant each week in fantasy. In a bye week plug-in don’t be afraid because you could get a great performance, but it is tough to count on either to be consistent plays. They will steal targets from each other, especially in the red-zone, and that’s where most Jets receivers get value is from inconsistent touchdowns. Decker finished last year 28th overall in standard scoring and was clearly the number one target on the team (almost double the receptions of the next WR 74/38). This is going to change with Marshall coming to town, and both are going to steal the targets from each other, so one week it could be Marshall and the next Decker, but there won’t be too many weeks where both are fantasy relevant.
Mike Wallace– Wallace actually had a good year last year, finishing 18th in standard scoring. He was a great threat around the red-zone, but he could never seem to get on the same page with Tannenhill on the long ball. Now he gets a new experience and a chance to excel in the NFL again. In Miami, he averaged his two lowest YPC ever, 12.7 and 12.9. Last year to help his stats he put up 10 touchdowns, and spread them out amongst nine games to make his owners happy to play him consistently. He only broke 100 yards once last year. He has great speed, we all know that, but that doesn’t equate to success all the time. Look at Cordarelle Patterson from last year who got 51 points and was supposed to be the breakout of the year. While I think Wallace is better, Patterson fell off after having a solid week 1, 18 points, 16 of them on the ground, and was not fantasy relevant. Bridgewater should be better after getting a year under his belt, but I don’t completely like that offense. There have also been many rumors of him playing the Z-receiver in Norv Turner’s offense and not playing the coveted X-receiver spot.
Jeremy Maclin– I’m not saying I completely hate him, cause he was great last year. I just don’t like the situation he is going into. The Chiefs WR’s didn’t get a single touchdown last year, and while there is a great possibility that will change, that still isn’t a good start. Travis Kelce got his first year behind him at TE and will continue to receive more touches; he had the most receptions on the team (67). In the offense that loves to feed Jamal Charles, he had the third most receptions on the team (40) and 206 rushing attempts. The most receptions for a WR was 60 done by Dwayne Bowe and the second highest was 16 receptions (Albert Wilson).
Maclin now reconnects with Andy Reid, where he averaged 64.5 receptions, 863.25 yards over four years, and got 26 touchdowns, which is good, but I still don’t think he will put up as good as numbers as last year (85 rec, 1318 yards, 10 touchdowns).
Emmanuel Sanders – He got off to a great start last year, only scoring single digits twice in the first 11 games and scoring 7 of his 9 touchdowns. He then ended the year on a cold streak, only getting double digit points once in the last 5 games and getting his two touchdowns in week 16. A lot of this has to do with the fact the Broncos are running more, rushing the ball over 20 times in each game starting in week 12, except one game which had 19 attempts. He could get off to a great start, but it wouldn’t shock me if he trails off again if the Broncos choose to run more later in the year. Also, Cody Latimer will get more touches than last year. He had one catch in week 17, but they also got rid of Welker. They like Latimer and he has great hands, something important in a Manning offense. I think Sanders can put up good numbers, I just think there are more consistent options at this spot in the draft. He will have some huge weeks that will win you games, but he could put up some lackluster games when the Broncos look to run.
DeSean Jackson– He actually had a great year last year, 56 receptions, 1169 yards and 6 touchdowns, letting him finish 16th amongst WR’s last year. He is a hit or miss player, that has great speed to beat defenses. But teams have learned that he is fast, so they play with a safety over the top or drop off on him. He has proven that he can still get behind the defenses, which makes him have one of the biggest upsides of any of the WR’s any week of the year. The quarterback situation is one that is a little scary. While RG3 has great talent, the injuries have set him back and he hasn’t been the same since. Pierre Garcon had a huge drop off in stats from 2013 to 2014, decrease in receptions by 594 and a decrease in receptions by 45 with touchdowns going down by 2. Those numbers are a decent year for wide receivers in the league these days. I think DeSean is overvalued for a person that will not put up great numbers week in week out; he is considered a number 1 in deeper leagues with 14 or 16 players. Reports have said that Garcon wil step up a little more and be “more involved” this year. If you draft Desean, find a consistent backup to cover for his variability.
LOVE
Julian Edelman– You can get him as a late #2 and he puts up pretty consistent numbers. He will get you catches, and is a lot better in a PPR system, but he still gets consistent yardage (92 Rec and 972 yards in 14 games), so it is assumed if he played a full season it would be over 100 catches and 1000 yards. He will get you some occasional rushing yards, 94 last year; and while that isn’t unbelievable, that is additional points. Also, the loss of Shane Vereen opens up some targets for people, 52 rec 447 yards and 3 TD’s, and while Edelman won’t get all of them, he does love getting short yardage and dump down catches. Brady looked great after the first four weeks, 29 of his 33 touchdowns and even if Garrapollo is playing the first few games
Jordan Matthews– He is put into a great situation with a Chip Kelley offense that lost some great weapons from last year, Jeremy Maclin and LeSean McCoy. While they do bring in DeMarco Murray who just had an unbelievable year as well as Ryan Matthews, a Kelly offense runs plenty of plays to feed multiple mouths, and Jordan Matthews will be the first one for feeding in the pass game. He lined up a lot from the slot last year, and may do the same leading to an increase in targets and value in PPR leagues. He had 67 catches as a rookie, and with Maclin gone; there are 85 catches that are up for grab. They have a dangerous rookie coming in with Nelson Agholor that will be a great addition on the outside; he is still a rookie, which can be a tough transition. Kelly runs a unique offense, so the learning curve could be greater for rookies than most systems. Matthews has a big frame, 6’3”, 212 LBS, so he could be a useful target in the red-zone if people crowd the box too much for the run.
Jarvis Landry– This is strictly based on PPR and value. He had tons of catches, 84 on 111 targets, and Tannehill isn’t consistent on the deep ball, shown by his poor chemistry with Mike Wallace last year. If you can get him as a bye-week plug in or a flex play he could put up decent numbers. His upside isn’t as high as some people think it is, but if you are just looking for a person to get consistent points Landry is a good later find. He started to come alive after the early week bye last year, and there is a good chance this was due to his rookie status. And with the Mike Wallace departure, there is a lot of room for improvement in the red-zone. Wallace scored 10 TD’S last year, and now that he is gone, Landry can be looked at as a great option in the red-zone.
T.Y. Hilton– One of my favorite players, mostly for his personal touchdown celebrations, but this guy has speed. He can burn past defenses easily, and he has one of the best quarterbacks in the league throwing him the ball. With any speed WR, there is always a concern for inconsistency, but TY gets involved and sees the ball more than just deep, racking up 82 catches in each of the past two seasons. He put up 1,345 yards and 7 touchdowns as well, which are both improvements from last year, and I don’t see him stopping. This offense is an explosive one and I do love the dome for a stadium late in the year so the offensive style won’t change. Reggie Wayne is gone, and they keep signing other old WR’s, Andre Johnson this year Hakeem Nicks last year, but I don’t think this will impact Hilton too much, maybe just draw a little more attention off of him. Drafting Philip Dorsett shouldn’t make a difference in T.Y.’s production either. T.Y. and Luck could become one of the deadlier combos in the NFL for the years to come.
Brandin Cooks– He was a huge player on fantasy boards last year as a rookie coming in to camp. He put up some good games, but got injured midway through the year (Week 11). The Saints will look to throw, maybe not as much as previous years, but they still will throw with a great quarterback in Brees. Over the summer Brees lost his favorite target in Jimmy Graham and also lost Kenny Stills, who starting in week 12 got over 65 yards in every game besides one. Colston is getting older and just puts up consistent, mediocre numbers. In order for this offense to put up numbers, someone will have to step up, and Cooks seems to be a good candidate. They need someone to stretch the field, and Stills was one of these options last year, but he is gone to Miami. Brees has been good in New Orleans, and that shouldn’t change drastically anytime soon.
