King Jones: Julio will be #1
Last year, it was Jordy Nelson and Antonio Brown. Both of those receivers weren’t consensus top 5 picks in their position, but ended up finishing 1st and 2nd. While neither of them were huge steals as you had to take them around the 2nd or 3rd round, finding a top 2 player in their position is invaluable. Both of these players won many Fantasy owners (including myself) their leagues! This year, that player will be Julio Jones. Unfortunately Julio’s ADP has been rising, rightfully so, but is still seen in many mock drafts as the 6th or 7th receiver off the board. Here’s why Julio will reign king in 2015:
Julio Jones has always seemed to have something or someone (Roddy White) holding him back from showing his true potential, but now he is ready to take that next step and become the #1 Wide Receiver in Fantasy Football. Last year, Julio was coming back from a season ending injury in 2013 and posted a 104-1593-6 stat line through 15 games. Still only 26 years old, Julio is entering his prime and will have plenty to prove going into the 2015 season because it is his contract year. The Falcons also experienced a change in offensive coordinator that will benefit Julio.
Kyle Shanahan is the new OC and is known for his ability to get his main receiver the ball and in this case it’s Julio. Andre Johnson had two of his most productive years under Shanahan, putting up (101-1569-9) in 2009 and (115-1575-8) in 2008. You can also look to the success Pierre Garcon had in 2013 where he had (113- 1349-5). Out of all those sensational seasons, this will be the best QB-WR combo Shanahan will have had to this point. Andre Johnson had pick-six Schaub throwing to him and Garcon had a young RG3 who has struggled at times. I really think 100 catches is the floor for Julio in 2015. He will have his best statistical year and put up the most fantasy points especially if he manages to haul in a few more TD’s than last year. Even Andre Johnson who seems to be allergic to the end zone posted 8 and 9 touchdowns in his years with Shanahan. Double digit touchdowns is very realistic for him this year.
Talking more about the effect Shanahan has had on his lead receivers, Numberfire writer Joe Juan wrote in a recent article,
“The lead wide receivers for Shanahan's offenses have, on average, enjoyed a nearly 15% bump in receptions and targets per game.”
He then calculates that over a full 16 game stretch Julio would have 124 receptions on 196 targets in 2015 based off of his 2014 statistics. While 196 targets may sound like a lot, I don’t doubt it. If you’ve watched the Falcons you know that Matt Ryan loves throwing to Julio, sometimes having tunnel vision for him and forcing tight throws.
Julio also went on a tear at the end of last year averaging 153 yards per game over the final 4 games he played in (missed week 15 v Steelers). A fully healthy Julio can be a dangerous one especially when him and Matt Ryan are clicking.
Another great stat to show Julio’s dominance is: Julio Jones led the league with 31 catches of 20+ yards. That is a pretty crazy statistic when you think about it and should continue into next year.
While everyone else is drafting Demaryius, Dez, Odell Beckham, and Antonio Brown at the end of the first round and early second, you will be able to snag the potential #1 WR with Julio hopefully a bit later. If you need any more reason to draft Julio, watch his ridiculous highlights against the Cardinals, or Packers and I can’t imagine you will want to miss out on his upcoming campaign which is bound to be special.
http://www.nfl.com/videos/atlanta-falcons/0ap3000000437027/Week-13-Julio-Jones-highlights (Week 13 v ARI)
http://www.nflrush.com/video/featured/10820 (Week 14 v GB)
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