Don't Sleep On Foster
Once again Arian Foster has a huge question mark next to his name coming into the 2015 season. He turns 29 in august and has now carried the ball close to 1,400 times in his career. Many people will question his ability to stay healthy and still be effective as he gets another year older. However, many people asked these same questions coming into this year after an injury riddled 2013. He answered his critics by averaging 4.8 yards per carry for 1,261 yards and 8 touchdowns in only 13 games. When Foster plays, there is no doubt that he is a RB1.
The Texans play a very easy schedule again in 2015 because of their division. Jacksonville and Tennessee both have two of the worst run defenses in the NFL, and Foster managed 109 and 99 yards against the Colts the two times they played. He will also get to play a few more easy games against Atlanta, New Orleans, and Cincinnati. These 3 teams were ranked numbers 3, 4, and 6 in the amount of fantasy points they allowed to opposing running backs. The Texans do play some intriguing defenses in 2015 though, including the now Rex Ryan coached Bills, the revamped Jets defense, and the Miami Dolphins who now have Ndamukong Suh. Overall the Texans play the 3rd easiest strength of schedule according to opponents win %. The tough matchups don't scare me though as Foster stepped up last year in week 16 when he ran for 96 yards against the stout Ravens D.
It will be interesting to see what the Texans do with the draft as they already boast the 3rd ranked run blocking offensive line according to ProFootballFocus.com. With Andre Johnson leaving and still a significant hole at QB, Foster’s value could be increased with a few interesting acquisitions. Who that could be? No idea yet, but if they plan on trotting out Ryan Mallet or Brian Hoyer week 1 I’m not sure how many games they really expect to win.
So when do you draft Foster if at all? I’ve seen mock drafts this year where Foster will go as low as the end of the 3rd round and some as high as the end of the 1st round. If you’re being optimistic you can predict that Foster will be able to perform similarly while being able to play in 1-2 more games. On the other hand, he can be seen as a RB with high bust potential because of his age and workload. I’m pretty optimistic with Fosters outlook this year as I have him ranked 8th in standard scoring leagues. Ideally I will be taking Foster in two scenarios. If I already have one RB and he is available in the 3rd round he’d make a great RB2, or if I drafted some other position first and second, and he is the only workhorse RB left he should still suffice as a lower end RB1. I don’t mind drafting him at all as long as I get his handcuff. An easy schedule and a good offensive line is a very good backfield to own in my opinion. He may be seen as a potential bust to some causing his draft stock to fall, but don’t be sleeping on Arian Foster when it comes to draft day because workhorse running backs are hard to come by and he could have a great 2015.
