Le'veon Bell, 2015 Beast or Bust?
BEFORE 3 GAME SUSPENSION WAS ANNOUNCED:
Over the past few years, fantasy “experts” come out with their rankings which everyone uses as a guide for their draft. However, it seems like every year these “experts” are wrong about so many things it seems ridiculous. After reading through many analysts “way too early mock drafts” and early rankings for 2015, I see many similarities. The biggest similarity being the #1 RB and almost always the #1 pick in most fantasy mock drafts, Le’veon Bell. Last year, the “experts”, were telling you to go after guys like Lesean McCoy, Jamaal Charles, and Adrian Peterson. While you can’t really blame them for Peterson, Mccoy and Charles didn’t end up being the top pick studs you were hoping for.
This year, I really think the “experts” are wrong to have Le’veon as the top pick. The first problem is the looming suspension he is facing at the start of next season. Looking at sitting out one or two games doesn’t seem like the end of the world, but it definitely isn’t what you want in a #1 pick. He is also going to encounter a lot of what Jamaal Charles did in 2014, a very challenging schedule. Usually, strength of schedule isn’t a huge deal, but going from playing one of the easiest schedules to the hardest, makes a significant difference. After last year’s disappointments that came with the top few picks, I decided to do some of my own research especially into the projected #1 overall pick this year.
A useful metric to focus on running backs is how many fantasy points the opposing team let up against opposing running backs. For example, last year the Atlanta Falcons let up an average of 21 fantasy points per game (Standard Scoring) to opposing running backs. Here’s a few stats to consider from 2014:
The Steelers played 11 of their 16 games against teams in the top 50% of the amount of points per game given up to opposing running backs.
In a 4 game stretch from weeks 11-15 (week 12 bye), Le’veon Bell accumulated 43.5% of his season total in standard scoring fantasy leagues, which happenned to be against the 2nd, 3rd 4th, and 5th ranked teams in amount of fantasy points given to opposing RBs.
Against the 5 teams not in the top 50% of points given up to RBs that the Steelers played, Bell averaged ONLY 12.62 PPG compared to the 20.91 PPG he averaged the rest of the year.
NOW. Here are some stats to consider for Le’veon bells 2015 campaign:
The Steelers are going to play 9 games against 2014 playoff teams plus two more who had winning records.
They play the hardest schedule in the NFL according to opponents win %.
4 out of the 5 losses that Pittsburgh had in 2014, Le’veon Bell received less than 20 carries.
The Steelers now play 10 teams in the bottom 50% of amount of points per game given to opposing running backs.
All of these facts are compelling reasons why you shouldn’t draft Le’veon Bell with your top pick. After looking at those statistics I really don’t see Le’veon Bell being anywhere near as successful as he was this year. He had a joke of a schedule and ran wild against teams with subpar run defenses. Also, as I said before, missing two games in the beginning of the season doesn’t seem like a huge ordeal but history would suggest otherwise. To further enforce my bold stance, Micheal Fabiano, one of NFL.com’s main fantasy analysts, said in one of his latest articles,
“Since 1970, there have been just 22 instances where a runner has missed at least two games (or played in a maximum of 14) and still finished among the top five backs.... that's 22 instances out of 220 top-five finishers in 44 seasons.”
That stat shows how incredibly challenging it is to finish in the top five after missing at least two games. The combination of his Strength of Schedule and history should be enough to convince you to stay away from Le’veon bell in those first few picks. I expect to see a good drop in the amount of total rushing yards he accumulates this year. However, in leagues where players are rewarded for catches, Le’veon Bell has a nice safety net with the amount of receptions he will get. Last year he had 83 receptions and I expect that number to be pretty similar this year. Therefore, in Points per Reception leagues, I wouldn’t mind him as a top 5 pick. My personal choice for this year’s upcoming fantasy drafts with standard scoring will be to avoid him and let somebody else draft him. It’s highly unlikely that he will escape the top 5 picks on most draft days anyways, but a few months down the road when he’s struggling and you avoided drafting him, you’ll be looking back knowing you made the right choice to entrust your coveted first-round pick in someone else.
(POST-SUSPENSION UPDATE)
Now that Bell has been suspended 3 games for the 2015 season, pending appeal, many people will start to be down on bell. Bell is a tough decision when deciding on where to draft him. It really depends on the league that you play in. For example some leagues may think the suspension will completely kill his value and you could get a huge value pick by drafting him in the late 2nd-3rd round. Or he could still be valued as the #1 overall RB, as he still is by some "experts", and be drafted at the top of the first round which shouldn't happen. Once more mock drafts come out we will have a better idea of where he is going to be drafted.
