Lesean McCoy Should Be Your 1st Round Pick
Lesean McCoy has a top 6 fantasy floor and a similar chance to be the #1 fantasy running back as “the big three” this season. Despite his high floor and ceiling he isn’t being drafted until the back half of the 1st round. I’m extremely bullish on Lesean McCoy for many reasons but the first is how impressive his 2016 season was.
Among running backs with 200 or more carries he was first in yards per carry, first in carries of 15 yards or more, and fifth in Warren Sharp’s (@SharpFootball) success rate. What makes this efficiency so impressive is that he did this with some of the most predictable play-calling in the league against the most difficult slate of opposing defenses:
Not only did the Bills face the toughest slate of rush defenses, the Bills play-calling didn’t do McCoy any favors.
In one score games, the Bills ran the ball the most in the league on first down (65%), 13% higher than the league average.
The predictability wasn’t limited to first downs though because after their own 20 yard line the Bills still ran at the highest rate in the league (52%) and were 10% above the league average.
This insanely predictable play calling led to Lesean McCoy having 77.7% of his carries go against boxes with 7 or more people in it. Marcus Mosher (@Marcus_Mosher) does some great work charting players YPC vs X Defenders in the box and in this case showing how impressive McCoy is:
Essentially, McCoy was a hyper-efficient player despite having poor play-calling and playing against the toughest competition.
I really thought the hype train would be going full steam ahead at this point for Lesean McCoy. But in fact, I have seen some people look at last year, scream REGRESSSION, and run away. That’s their entire analysis. Because an aging running back had an efficient year in 2016 means to them there is no way he could possibly be a top tier fantasy producer again in 2017.
I find this funny because McCoy is bound to have an easier schedule of opposing run defenses, will have more balanced play-calling, and now has basically no competition for backfield snaps which will result in more carries & catches.
Taking a closer look at his strength of schedule on sharpfootballstats.com, you can see all the individual components of teams the Bills will play. Relating to McCoy and the offense as a whole their offensive schedule is projected to get easier (12th to 22nd). More specifically, opposing rush defense efficiency is projected to go from THE hardest in 2016 to the 18th hardest in 2017. Their schedule also gets easier in explosive rush defense (16th to 28th), another bonus because McCoy already led the league in 15+ yard rushes last year. Finishing up, their schedule gets much easier in terms of RB pass efficiency defense (5th to 27th). This is really important because McCoy should be even more involved in the pass game with the change in coaching. McCoy has already gone on record saying he is excited about his expanded role in the passing game with Rick Dennison as the offensive coordinator.
When writing my original piece on McCoy in march, Mike Gilislee was the one aspect I was nervous about. He vultured NINE touchdowns last season, eight on the ground and one through the air. Now that he’s off to New England, the depth chart heading into training camp behind McCoy looks like this:
1. Lesean McCoy
2. Jonathan Williams
3. Joe Banyard
4. Cedric O'Neal
5. Jordan Johnson
Jonathan Williams has had troubles on and off the field, averaging only 3.5 YPC in his rookie season and going to court for a DUI, Joe Banyard has logged 23 career carries in four years, and I’m not even going to bother talking about the other two. This pathetic depth behind McCoy is very concerning for Bills fans but should excite those who draft McCoy.
Looking at their coaching changes, Rick Dennison is now the offensive coordinator of the Bills. Last year he was Denver’s offensive coordinator leaving many unsure of what to expect. In his coaching career Dennison has been anywhere from leading the league in rushing attempts to ranking 28th. He will most likely have a more balanced approach than Greg Roman did last year but should still rush the ball above the league average rate.
There aren’t many easy conclusions to make about overall play-calling, but there is something noticeable about his player usage. In his nine years of coaching, he has had a collection of J.A.G.'s at RB with the exception of three years with Arian Foster. When I say “a collection of J.A.G.S.” I mean Tatum Bell, Travis Henry, Selvin Young, Micheal Pittman, Ronnie Hillman and C.J. Anderson. The three seasons he had a talented RB (Arian Foster), Foster's carries, targets and catches per game were as follows:
Last year McCoy averaged less in almost all categories than in the Foster-Dennison years having 16.7 carries, 4.1 targets and 3.6 catches per game. Going into his final year of guaranteed money in Buffalo I don’t expect the Bills to restrict McCoy’s touches whatsoever. So despite the probable decrease in overall rushing attempts from the Bills, McCoy will likely see an increase in his own workload especially in the passing game.
Another important facet to McCoy’s success in 2017 will be his offensive line. It has remained intact and been ranked as the 10th best unit in the league by Pro Football Focus. Jeff Ratcliffe (@JeffRatcliffe), of PFF, tweeted out stats which show Buffalo led the league in yards before contact last season. Bills RB’s were able to gain 2.88 yards on average before contact! Some of this success can be contributed to McCoy’s vision and patience but a large portion of the credit should be given to the offensive line.
For those concerned about the switch in styles of blocking, from power to zone, the Bills were very good at blocking for both outside and inside zone run plays. Zoltán Buday of PFF published an article looking at teams yards per carry and yards before contact based on scheme. He grouped the schemes into 3 categories, outside zone, inside zone, and gap scheme. The Bills ran inside zone plays 97 times last year and were 1st in the NFL in yards per carry (5.38) and yards before contact (2.71). They ran outside zone 30 times, and were 1st again in yards per carry (5.73) and yards before contact (2.77). Based on these numbers you can be confident that the scheme change will not affect McCoy or the Bills elite run-blocking offensive line.
Since my original article on McCoy in march, his ADP has risen from being taken 14th overall to around 9th. This means that you will need to make Lesean McCoy your 1st round pick. (FantasyADHD.com):
Even if McCoy’s efficiency does regress from last year, his increased workload will continue to make him a top 5 fantasy running back this season. He has an amazing run-blocking offensive line, no competition for touches, will be used more in the pass game, and will be facing easier opposing defenses. McCoy’s high floor and upside is unmatched after the first few picks. Be sure to capitalize.
