Lesean McCoy: The Stud Running Back After "The Big 3"
Everyone remembers last season when David Johnson, Ezekiel Elliot and Le’veon Bell dominated fantasy football while crushing the dreams of Zero-RB enthusiasts. Yet there was another RB who had a very impressive 2016 which has gone underappreciated. This has caused his cost to drop despite having a legitimate chance to outperform “The Big 3” backs in 2017. This RB is Lesean Mccoy.
Why was his season so impressive? Let me tell you some facts from Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) and show you some visuals from Sharpfootballstats.com:
The Buffalo Bills were one of the most predictable teams in football with their playcalling.
In one score games, they ran the ball the MOST in the league on first down, a whopping 65% of the time. Yet the predictability didn’t end on first down.
Per Warren Sharp: “In 1-score games from their own 20 onward, they (Buffalo Bills) ran the ball the most, #1 run rate, which is 10% above avg.”
To add onto this, Lesean Mccoy faced the HARDEST schedule of opposing run defenses in the NFL last year in terms of rushing efficiency:
So despite facing the toughest competition in the league with some of the most predictable playcalling, he still was SIXTH in yards after contact, SIXTH in fantasy points per snap and FIRST in carries of 15 yards or more, averaging 1.3 PER GAME.
In addition, among backs with over 200 carries Lesean Mccoy ranked 5th out of 20 backs in success rate:
If this hasn’t convinced you Mccoy's 2016 was special, in another tweet from Sharp, “Through a game's first 3 quarters @CutonDime25 averaged 6.0 YPC (BEST in NFL) over 175 att vs #1 hardest run Ds in a predictable, run heavy off.”
Essentially, McCoy was a hyper-efficient player despite having poor play-calling and playing against the toughest competition.
Looking at 2017, Rick Dennison is now the offensive coordinator of the Bills. Last year he was Denver’s offensive coordinator leaving many unsure of what to expect. In his coaching career Dennison has been anywhere from leading the league in rushing attempts to ranking 28th. He will most likely have a more balanced approach than Greg Roman did last year. There aren’t many easy conclusions to make about overall play-calling, but there is something noticeable about his player usage. In his years of coaching he has had a collection of JAG's at RB with the exception of three years. Those three seasons he had a talented RB (Arian Foster), Foster's carries, targets and catches per game were as follows:
If you look at the 14 games McCoy played in or didn’t leave early last year he averaged 16.7 carries, 4.1 targets and 3.6 catches. So despite Dennison potentially having a more balanced approach on offense, Mccoy’s carries could actually increase, while his pass usage should remain similar.
So what can we expect at a minimum in 2017 from McCoy based on the previous findings?
Similar or slightly more carries per game.
Consistent usage in the passing game. (4+ targets & 3+ catches)
A regression from the Hardest SOS in rushing efficiency.
Less predictable play-calling allowing for less loaded boxes against the Bills.
There is a good chance McCoy could be even more efficient in 2017 because of an easier SOS and well-balanced offense, while having an increased workload.
To add onto this, think about what McCoy could do if two small things fall the Bills way. The first is Sammy Watkins staying healthy. Having him on the field helps to keep defenses honest and keep the team balanced. The second is adding a player to the right side of the O-line. They can become a top tier unit if that happens. They currently rank 11th in PFF grades but could vault into the top 5-6 with another addition. I don’t think either of these scenarios are far-fetched and both would significantly help McCoy for 2017.
Considering all of these factors I view McCoy as my RB4 with RB1 upside. Yet his current ADP is RB6 in MFL10's. Using @FantasyADHD’s ADP app you can see that McCoy isn’t even a first round pick on average!
The main concern to Mccoy exceeding his value is Dennison viewing Gilislee similarly to Mccoy. However, looking at Dennisons past tendencies he tends to stick with one back while using the backup intermittently, especially when the main back can catch passes well. Not to mention they are paying McCoy over 8M while just recently using a 5th round tender on Gilislee (about 1M value). He is a great handcuff but shouldn't eat into McCoy's workload. Buy McCoy now while he is cheap because his ADP is sure to rise once people recognize Lesean Mccoy for the high floor-high ceiling pick that he is.
