Which Free Agent WR is The Best Investment?
This year’s free agent pool of wide receivers may seem underwhelming, but due to the number of undervalued players teams could be wise to invest. For example, a polarizing and oft-injured player like Alshon Jeffery will most likely find a new home. He’s expected to receive a deal around 15 million per season, the most of any free agent WR this offseason. The question I’d like to answer by using Warren Sharp’s T.O.A.R.S statistic as well PFF’s player grades is, which players will give teams the most bang for their buck? I‘m using both sources because they both are powerful and combine film (PFF) with analytics (SharpFootball).
TOARS is an advanced statistic that stands for Target & Output Adjusted Receiving Success. It combines a players success rate with the passer rating the QB has when targeting them. Here is the link if you would like to learn more or explore: https://www.sharpfootballstats.com/toars--off-.html
Moving on, here is a list of the WR’s who should garner the most interest when free agency starts, ranked by T.O.A.R.S.:
Player Breakdown
Pierre Garcon: For teams looking to “win” free agency Pierre Garcon is their guy. He’s a veteran, scored incredibly well in both TOARs and PFF grades and his average cost per year should be less than players like Stills, Jeffery, and Jackson. He is only going to be 31 this season despite the stigma that he is closer to 35. I firmly believe he has another year left as a solid #2 WR in an offense.
Probable Landing Spot: My bet is that he signs with the 49ers, mainly because of Kyle Shanahan. If you remember back to 2013, Garcon caught 113 balls with Kyle Shanahan as his OC. Reports are that they're nearing a deal that's very frontloaded, 16M first year, 6M second year. This is still an average of only 11M a year which is just slightly more than previously reported. Here is a visual of how Garcon performed last year:
Terrelle Pryor: A guy that just started playing WR within the last few years looked awfully impressive last year. He squared up against some tough secondary’s and still succeeded despite having a rotation of clowns at QB. This is highlighted by a 6-131 game against the NYG secondary, one of the best in the league. He is going to be 28 by next season, but I don’t think he has reached his ceiling yet. If he lands in the right offense he could have a big impact.
Probable Landing Spot: I think the Browns try to keep him but it should be in his best interest to go elsewhere. If he can improve this offseason and become more proficient as a WR I think he would be a perfect fit in Kyle Shanahan’s scheme as his X-receiver. He boasts a 99th percentile height-adjusted speed score (playerprofiler.com), his closest comparable being Demaryius Thomas (PlayerProfiler). It may be a bit of a stretch to project him into a role this big, but if he continues to improve, “The ceiling is the roof” –Michael Jordan (Yes, he actually said that last week).
Kenny Britt: Britt is another underrated free-agent prospect. He hasn’t lived up to his potential as a first round pick so far but also hasn’t had a good QB throwing him the ball. Like Pryor he posted both a good PFF grade as well as the 30th best TOARS rank among WR’s getting 50 or more targets. I believe he can be a good WR2 on a team that has a competent starting QB.
Probable Landing Spot: The Eagles seem like a likely landing spot. They need to invest in WR’s and need to start taking risks to attain higher upside WR’s to pair with Wentz. Agholor is a disaster and Jordan Matthews has struggled without real outside options.
Per a tweet from Benjamin Allbright @AllbrightNFL:
“The #Eagles have been connected with just about every WR out there this offseason. Kenny Britt report is legit, though.”
While the early part of his career hasn't worked out that well, Kenny Britt's best comparable on playerprofiler.com (Larry Fitzgerald) gives me hope for the rest of it.
Desean Jackson: Jackson has been one of the premier deep threats in this league for a while and should receive a nice contract because of his name brand. He helped Kirk Cousins a lot by stretching the field and getting open deep last season. He is a bit of a hot head but should still have decent success wherever he goes.
Probable Landing spot: Desean Jackson is going to be a Tampa Bay Buccaneer come week 1 of next season. The Bucs offense is going to be legit with both Evans and Jackson stretching the field, which should hopefully open up the run game for the stud RB they draft.
Kenny Stills: Bound to be 25 at the beginning of the 2017 season, Stills has time to improve as a player. He didn’t grade that well according to TOARS or PFF’s grades last season in Miami. This isn’t surprising because running deep routes is his specialty and Tannehill can’t throw a deep ball for his life. I would like to say this is a good “buy-low” opportunity for teams in need of a solid WR3, but his price is 12+ Million a year apparently. That isn’t a price you should pay at this point for an underwhelming 25 year old. He's never had over 1,000 yards or 65 receptions in a single season.
Probable Landing Spot: The Rams are going to lose out on the sweepstakes for every other WR and end up overpaying Stills to outrun long-balls from Goff.
Alshon Jeffery: He graded out horribly last season in TOARS but graded decently according to PFF’s player grades. Jeffery is a very talented player when healthy and deserves a hefty contract. He can go to a team and immediately become their WR1 with his jump ball ability.
Probable Landing Spot: He met with the Bears last week and it was apparently “productive” but that doesn’t mean anything to me. He wants to get out of Chicago, and for good reason. He is going to be a Tennessee Titan next season. He is a good fit with Mariota who finally would get a bona fide WR1 and the Titans have been reportedly willing to spend a lot on WR this off-season. He should sign a contract near $15M a year which seems a bit steep but the Titans really need him.
