Super Bowl 51 Preview and Prediction
New England (-3) Vs. Atlanta
Current Total: 58
This preview will include a lot of in-depth statistics, abstract analytics and attempts to make the game more predictable. I packed this article with a TON of statistics that can help you form your own opinion about how this game could play out. My prediction will be at the end if that’s all you care about. All of my graphics and stats are from Sharpfootballstats.com so be sure to stop there if this interests you.
The media is hyping this up to be the classic match-up of the #1 scoring offense against the #1 scoring defense. However this narrative is highly over exaggerated in this situation. Looking at this graphic I tweeted out last week you can see not only did the Patriots play against the easiest collection of pass offenses, but it was the easiest by a good margin.
Patriots defense VS. Atlanta offense:
Without looking at who they played, the Pats 15.7 PPG allowed makes it seem like they are a top tier defense. In reality they shut down a group of incompetent or injured offenses. I can’t completely undermine the complicated and effective coaching strategies from Matt Patricia but most of the teams they played against didn’t stand a chance. Here is a list of the quarterback they played against and the results: (@ScottBarettDFB created this)
The Patriots defense has only played against six teams in the top 20 in pass efficiency and one in the top 10 (the Steelers last week). Since Atlanta is the No. 1 pass offense in terms of efficiency, It’s important to see how the Patriots fared against the best competition they played. The first image is New England’s passer rating allowed against opponents outside the top 20 in passing efficiency, and the second is against those six teams in the top 20 of pass efficiency:
With the exception of deep left passes the Patriots didn’t do a good job defending the pass against decent offenses.
Continuing to look at good teams the Patriots played against I noticed that they were susceptible to explosive plays. Against the Bengals, 15% of pass plays were explosive (went for 20 yards or more). Against Seattle, NE gave up explosive pass plays 13% of the time and allowed a 56 % success rate against the pass. This is especially interesting because Atlanta had the highest explosive pass rate in the league this year (12%).
The Patriots only played one team in the top 10 in rushing efficiency all year (Bills). The first graphic is how the Pats have done all year against the run, and the second is how the Pats D fared against the bills in directional YPC:
The Patriots are 4th in rush efficiency on the whole year and have been a very stout unit. They also had success stopping the run in some areas against the Bills but were gashed in others by the combination of Lesean Mccoy and Mike Gilislee. While the Bills running game is more efficient than the Falcons, the Falcons ranked 7th in rush efficiency and aren’t to be underestimated.
Looking at how the Pats performed in the Red Zone, it stood out to me that New England ranked dead LAST (62%) this year in defensive red zone success rate in the 2nd quarter. However, in the other quarters they ranked 5th, 22nd and 22nd in the first, third and fourth quarters.
Moving onto the Atlanta offense I want to start with a commonly known stat: Atlanta has scored a TD on their opening drive in each of the last 8 games. This is a sign of good coaching and the ability to consistently script a complete drive that isn’t predictable for the opposing defense. It should be one of the main goals of the Patriots to not let this streak continue.
Atlanta ranks 1st in passing efficiency, 1st in explosive pass plays and 7th in rushing efficiency. Their offense has been on fire all year averaging 34 points per game and 39.3 in their last 3. What makes this season even more impressive is that they played the 2nd hardest schedule of opposing defenses!
Matt Ryan has been the lifeblood of this offense and is potentially the NFL MVP this year. This is his passer rating all year by depth and field zone:
Everyone saw the show the Falcons put on against the Packers last week, putting up 24 points in the first half and 44 in the entire game. Their offense looked relatively unstoppable against the Packers secondary. Here is where this matchup gets interesting, The Packers Pass D efficiency is actually BETTER than the Patriots. The Patriots rank 23rd and the Packers ranked 22nd this year. Sure the Packers secondary was pretty banged up going into last week’s game, but even when they were healthier in week 8 Matt Ryan put up 288-3-0 with an 80% completion rate and a 129 passer rating.
Looking at how Matt Ryan has performed against teams with similar pass d efficiency to the Pats may help shed some light on how he will perform come super bowl Sunday.
Atlanta has played 7 teams that rank 20th-29th in Pass D efficiency this year. In those games the Falcons scored 35, 45, 33, 42, 41, 38 and 44 points (39.7 AVG). Here’s what Matt Ryan’s passer rating looked like in those games:
Matt Ryan was nearly flawless within 15 yards and still had plenty of success deep center and to the right against those opponents.
Atlanta’s offensive RZ success rate by quarter (10th, 27th, 8th, and 10th) is interesting because the second quarter is not only Atlanta’s worst on offense but also the Patriots worst on defense.
Another interesting visual is Atlanta’s game splits when they were an underdog of 3 or greater this season. They actually scored more when they were an underdog of at least 3 points.
New England’s offense VS. Atlanta defense:
New England sports the 2nd best offense in terms of efficiency this year. DeflateGate seems like a thought of the past as New England cruised as soon as Tom Brady came back. Here is his passer rating by field zone and depth:
This shows that Tom Brady has continued to be dominant all year and should have plenty of success against the Falcons 19th ranked pass defense.
Atlanta ranks #27 in overall defensive efficiency this year. New England played 7 games (with Tom Brady) this year against teams that rank 16th or lower in defensive efficiency. In those games they scored 33,35,41,30,22,41,35. (33.8 points average).
The only teams near 27th in D efficiency that the Patriots played this year they scored 33 (browns 31st), 41 (Bills 26th), and 30 (49ers 28th) on.
While New England’s rushing efficiency hasn’t been spectacular this year (17th), the Falcons run defense isn’t very good (29th in efficiency).
Looking at their Red Zone success by quarter the Patriots don’t have much of a weak spot, ranking 8th, 13th, 6th and 5th.
From @Sharpfootball on @evansilva and @rosstucker fantasy feast podcast he said something along the lines of "Look for Dion Lewis to potentially be utilized often as the Falcons were 30th against defending passes to the running back."
Now onto the Falcons defense. People don’t seem to talk about them very much because they just assume the Patriots offense will be able to score 25+ points. Usually it is bad to assume, but the stats that come after this don’t make me confident to say otherwise. The Falcons allow an average of 24.8 points per game but similar to the Pats this is a bit deceiving.
The Falcons passer rating allowed from this season is as follows:
It isn’t bad but it definitely won't stop Tom Brady and the Patriots who rank 2nd in pass efficiency.
This is their passer rating allowed when playing teams in the top 15 in pass efficiency:
Against those teams in the top 15 of pass efficiency the Falcons allowed point totals of: 31 (TB), 28 (OAK), 32 (NO), 33 (SD), 32 (GB), 28 (TB), 29(KC), 32 (NO), and let up 21 to a half injured packers squad. That’s an average of 29.2 PPG.
Also, against those teams in the top 15 in pass efficiency the Falcons allowed an 11% explosive play rate (30th) in the league. The league average is around 7%, and on offense, New England is 4th in the league in explosive pass plays with 10%.
Atlanta's directional YPC allowed reflects why they are 29th in rush efficiency this year:
They have been absolutely gashed when teams run to the right against them. As I talked about earlier, the Patriots haven’t been great at running the ball this year but should take advantage of this poor run defense.
To wrap it all up here is a summary of footballoutsiders.com “DVOA” ranks for both teams.
OFFENSE:
DEFENSE:
Falcons: 19th against the pass, 29th against the run, 27th overall
Patriots: 23rd against the pass. 4th against the rush, 16th overall
PREDICTION:
All of the numbers suggest that this game will end up with both teams going over or approaching 30 points. The only cause of concern is Bill Belichicks notoriety when it comes to shutting down top tier offenses through history. The main examples being “the greatest show on turf” and Jim Kelly’s bills team when BB was with the Giants. As good as a coach BB is, he has his hands full in this game and I don’t think he has the personnel to stop this Falcons offense consistently. The Falcons won’t allow Julio to be double-covered like Antonio Brown was last week because they will bring him in late motions and bunch their WR’s. Not to mention the Falcons have been incredibly tricky with scheming as well, who would have thought Patrick Dimarco, their FB, would have a 30+ yard gain on the first drive last week. The Patriots shouldn’t have much of a problem driving down the field either on the Falcons poor rush D and mediocre pass D. Neither teams pass-rush is good by many metrics, ranking in the mid to high 20’s by many different gauges which is a huge problem for their secondary’s.
I expect Atlanta to be winning or tied at half, as they are the 2nd best first half team in NFL history. New England and Atlanta’s prolific pass attacks will wear down each others defenses, going back and forth till the end of the game. One turnover will probably decide the winner of this game. When it comes down to it, I like Tom Brady to be clutch and pull out the win.
Score:
New England: 33
Atlanta: 31
Here is my super bowl write up from last year where I predicted the Broncos would win: http://www.fantasyfootballmatrix.com/single-post/2016/02/05/Super-Bowl-50-Analysis-and-Prediction
