Finding Week 7 Tight Ends Using Fantasylabs Trends: O'Doyle Rules

@BrettSquiresDFS is back looking at which tight ends to use this week, using FantasyLabs trends tool.

First off, I want to strongly recommend any avid DFS player to take a long look at Fantasy Labs. The trends tool is a great way for players to test their own theories and complete essential research.

These picks can go for cash or GPP’s but lean more towards cash plays based on the filters I set. The trend I created was to find the happy balance of safety and upside. This trend isn’t very complicated but the forgotten aspect of the trends tool at Fantasy Labs is to have a large sample size.

Trend:

This was a trend I made strictly for TE’s but it could obviously be used for a RB or WR as well.

The picture shown above is pretty self-explanatory but I essentially set out to make a trend that combined a high Vegas total, a high ceiling, and a relatively high floor. These trends are relatively common and not very unique hence the earlier comment on the selections mainly being suited for cash.

Here are the results from last week:

Fleener was more of a GPP option but paid dividends for owners. Gronk was also a GPP option and was a fantastic play last week. Kelce was seen as a solid cash play across the industry but ultimately fell short. Kelce has only topped 20 fantasy points in DK scoring twice in his last 21 games - something to keep in mind for owners trying to capitalize on the “upside”.

Here are the results for this week:

Cash: Jack Doyle, Delanie Walker, Zach Miller, Travis Kelce

GPP: Thomas

Jack Doyle ($2500)

TE is usually a great spot to differentiate your lineup from the pack when constructing GPP lineups but Jack Doyle will be tough to fade in GPPs this week. With Dorsett questionable and once-starting Dwayne Allen out, a few more targets should head Doyle’s way making him a great play in both formats but he will be the chalk play of the week. He’s currently ranked as the third TE in terms of DVOA and is leading all qualifying TE’s in catch rate with a ridiculous 87 percent mark. Doyle doesn’t have a great matchup this week as he’s facing a Titans defense who has given up the following receiving marks to opposing TE’s: Kyle Rudolph (4-64), Eric Ebron (4-53), Clive Walford (2-27), C.J. Fiedorowicz (4-48-1) + Ryan Griffin (3-54), (Dolphins game where Cameron was out and Tannehill completed 12 passes), Gary Barnidge (3-59). A few things to note here, they seem to have done well against TE’s but let’s dive a bit deeper into why. OAK rarely uses the TE and MIA is stuck with Dion Sims, Rudolph was stuck with Bradford’s first Vikings start and Cody Kessler isn’t the most intimidating QB to face as he’s PFF’s 20th ranked QB thus far. There’s no use in making excuses for players under-performed but the point is they simply have not faced a true test of a solid QB + TE aside from Stafford-Ebron. Doyle is a near lock for 3x value and 7x value is a very real possibility. Salary relief is the key for Doyle.

Zach Miller ($3800) Thursday Slate

Another chalky option but as I stated before, these are recommended cash game plays. With Eddie Royal slated to miss this game, Hoyer will be left with Cam Meredith, Alshon Jeffery, and Zach Miller as his main targets. It’s possible all three hit 10-plus targets in this game. Hoyer has been one of the biggest surprises this season as he’s PFF’s 13th ranked QB while tossing 44.25 attempts per game. This pace is seems impossible to keep up as it ranks the Bears 2nd in attempts per game. The Packers have been poor against opposing TE’s in 2016 and I don’t see that changing against a healthy Zach Miller. They’ve given up the 22nd most fantasy points to TE’s and that includes a complete dud from Will Tye. The Packers have a solid run defense so expect the Bears to lean on the passing game early and often. From the players that trend spit out, Miller also has the highest plus/minus of 5.76. Plus/minus measures a player’s actual points compared to their expected points (derived from salary). He’s simply too cheap and offers the rare combination of safety and upside.

GPP: Coby Fleener ($3800)

Fleener’s home/road splits unsurprisingly match with Drew Brees’ splits. At home, Fleener has shown his upside but on the road, it’s a whole new ball game for him.

It’s a miniscule sample size of just two games but Brees has four prominent weapons in the passing game and if Brees is going to struggle at home, it’s tough to pinpoint which guy (if any) will exceed value. This will keep Fleener’s ownership in the dumpster despite a strong Week 6 performance. He has a very respectable 5.01 plus/minus this season and a 79 bargain rating this week. The matchup is poor but he’s simply a contrarian play. Keep the exposure low on Fleener but toss him in a few lineups because his ownership will likely be around 3% this week. This has the potential to be a high-scoring game and the majority of the fantasy world is well aware of Brees’ home/road splits so the majority of DFS players will be off of the Saints offense.

If you have any questions feel free to DM me on Twitter @BrettSquiresDFS. Thanks for the read and good luck this week!