TNF Preview and Prediction: Siemian The Savior

Last weeks TNF preview was spot on as David Johnson ran all over the 49ers leading the Cardinals to a solid win. I'm now 3-0 on predictions with game write-ups.

Denver Broncos (4-1) @ San Diego Chargers (1-4)

Vegas line: Den -3.5

Over/Under: 45

This weeks matchup is between the Broncos and the Chargers. The Broncos suffered their first loss last week against one of the hottest teams in the NFL, the Falcons. The main problem was their offensive line struggles. Paxton Lynch made his first start and was pressured or sacked very often, leading to a tough day for the rookie. Meanwhile, the Chargers lost another heart-breaker, missing a game-tying field goal at the end of the game. I am really starting to feel bad for this team with all of the season-ending injuries (Danny Woodhead, Keenan Allen, Jason Verrett) and their close game struggles. This week won’t be much easier for them as they face the reigning super bowl champs.

How the Broncos win:

If Trevor Siemian starts, there isn’t much doubt that the Broncos will win the game. One of the biggest matchups for the Broncos will be exploiting the weak SD secondary. If you look at the chart (Sharpfootballstats.com) of SD’s defense passer rating allowed, you can see that their secondary has been vulnerable to really any type of throw. Siemian has looked competent thus far and has the weapons in Sanders and Thomas to take advantage of a matchup like this.

On D, they need to limit long passes. This will be something to watch, because the Broncos D has given up the 4th least explosive pass plays while the Chargers have the 3rd most (sharpfootballstats.com). The offseason addition of Travis Benjamin has aided Rivers in making longer throws, but the Broncos secondary needs to shut him down to be successful. Last week the Denver D struggled mightily against Tevin Coleman, especially in the passing game. Luckily for the Broncos, the Chargers don't have anyone with Colemans skillset, barring a Mccluster revival. As long as they limit long plays, Denvers D should have no problem handling the turnover-prone Chargers.

How the Chargers Win:

The Chargers record doesn’t really reflect how they have been playing. Week 1 they were beating KC the entire game only to have the chiefs make a crazy comeback and lose in overtime. Fast forward to the game against the Saints where they were up two scores, with 7 minutes left and the ball. They once again somehow found a way to lose that game. They have played well for 3 quarters of many games against some solid teams, but haven’t found a way to put it all together.

On Offense, they need to establish a way to consistently move the ball and not turn it over. This won’t be easy given the all-around strength of the Denver D in both the running and passing game. It is very important for them to not turn the ball over because they are tied for the 3rd most giveaways in the NFL. Most of these turnovers have come from fumbles as they lead the NFL (8). The Chargers running game has a chance to get going after Atlanta was quite successful against Denver last week. If Melvin Gordon can find some room, they should be able to move the ball pretty well and keep their horrific secondary off the field. It is also important for the Chargers to continue their rhythm in the deep passing game.

On Defense, the Chargers need to continue to be stingy in the running game. They have surprisingly allowed the 8th least rushing yards this year, vastly improving from last year. The Broncos will try to establish a running game, so slowing that down will do wonders for their chances to win.

Prediction:

Overall, I think the Broncos should win this game by at least a TD. Siemian is expected to play and should have a day against this SD secondary. Both Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders may eclipse 100 passing yards as the run game is slowed down. San Diego will be able to move the ball but will have at least one costly turnover resulting in points for Denver.

Final Score: 24-17 Denver

Fantasy Studs:

Emmanuel Sanders

Demaryius Thomas

Stream alert: Trevor Siemian