Brett's Week 5 Contrarian GPP Plays
Brett Squires is going to be writing articles on contrarian GPP plays on Draftkings throughout the season! Through the first 4 weeks he has been wildly successful so don't miss out on this knowledge:
As a reminder, these are strictly GPP plays/pivots! You should expect some inconsistency with these picks but the players listed will have high upside as well as relatively low ownership.
QB: Aaron Rodgers ($7700)
First off, his ownership will likely be a bit higher than most GPP plays but I still expect him to be around 10-15% ownership which isn’t terrible. The dreaded red number (a “bad” matchup) on DK often scares some newbies off of players not to mention he’s the most expensive QB on the Sunday only slate. Even if Dominque Rodgers-Cromartie suits up for the primetime matchup, I’m not worried about Rodgers at home following a bye week considering the Packers are 7-3 after bye weeks since ‘08 (teamrankings.com). A-Rod will be facing a depleted Giants secondary, at home, after a bye week -- expect a solid game from Jordy Nelson and a bounce-back game from the forgotten Randall Cobb. And just as a reminder, Eddie Lacy has just three touchdowns over the last 18 game so there’s no need to worry about Lacy getting 2+ TD’s in this one. The Giants rank 23rd in DVOA against the pass (football outsiders).
Others to consider: Eli Manning, Derek Carr, Big Ben
RB: Bilal Powell ($4,000)
The Powell play serves as a pivot from Jerick McKinnon (who I do like this week) but also a pricier alternative to DeAndre Washington. I’m expecting Powell’s ownership to hang around the 1-3% range so a 5x performance would really put you ahead of the pack if either McKinnon or Washington underperform. Powell snap count has risen almost each week: Week 1: 17, Week 2: 17, Week 3: 28, Week 4: 37 Week 5: ??? As Rotoworld’s Evan Silva pointed out, the Jets are fully expected to be coming from behind in this game and a banged up Matt Forte should surrender plenty of snaps to the pass-catching extraordinaire in Bilal Powell. Big Ben is statistically a much better QB at home and with Bell back it shouldn’t take long for this game to head towards a blowout. Powell has a chance to out-snap Forte in this one and he’s an excellent play on DK because of the PPR scoring format. Also, Ryan Shazier -- one of the best pass-covering LB’s in the league -- has already been ruled out for Week 5. A receiving line of 7-61-1 is more than possible against a Steelers defense who’s struggled against running backs.
Others to consider: Terrance West and Jerick McKinnon
WR: Randall Cobb ($6200)
A primetime matchup between the Packers and Giants at Lambeau is a game fantasy players should be aggressively targeting. “The Giants rank first in no-huddle rate (55.3-percent) and the Packers go to the hurry-up at a similar percentage when in Green Bay — at least for as long as the game remains competitive.” (Pat Thorman of PFF) Both secondaries are injury-riddled and have been burned the last few weeks. If the Giants can keep this one close, Cobb should get his. Due to Cobb’s lackluster 2015-2016 (so far) season(s), the ownership should be below 5%. I recommend only playing Cobb if one plans to stack him with A-Rod.
As you can see from Chris Raybon’s (4for4 football) research, the QB-WR2 stack is nowhere near the ceiling of the QB-WR1 stack. Because of this, those choosing this stack must be weary of this and understand the Nelson-Rodgers stack is likely to score more points. But according to FantasyLabs matchup tool, Cobb could be lined up against rookie Eli Apple or Trevin Wade who was burned last week in Minnesota. Regardless, Cobb should have the better matchup than Nelson this week and a 6-91-2 line is definitely in the realm of possibilities. Cobb is by no means a cash game play but the Rodgers-Cobb stack is worth gaining some exposure to in GPPs.
Others to consider: Emmanuel Sanders, DeVante Parker, Sammie Coates.
TE: Zach Ertz ($3500)/Will Tye ($2600)
I’m officially stuck. I would publicly announce how long I’ve switched back and forth between these two guys but I’m not trying to be hazed by Twitter. I save Ertz in a lineup, change it, play both, cry. You get the point. These guys are both great plays this week and locking them both into your lineup is actually a bold yet smart move. Here’s why:
Jonathan Bales wrote this article for RotoGrinders back in 2014 but the article holds valuable information hidden beneath the thousands of football articles written every year. It’s a gem. Many just assume playing a TE in the flex is a poor/not statistically supported decision but it’s quite the contrary. Your probability of taking home a GPP prize is significantly increased when grouping two tight ends. Will Tye is headed towards a 90 percent snap count this week against the Packers in a game where I previously noted the shootout potential. The Pack can’t cover TE’s very well at all and Tye proved his worth in the pass game last season. At just $2600, 5-7x value is a real possibility here against a Packers D that is currently 19th in points allowed to TE’s. As for Zach Ertz, his price simply does not resemble the likely production for this upcoming week. No team has been as bad against the pass than the Detroit Lions. Yes, the garbage Falcons secondary and decimated Saints secondary rank higher according to football outsiders. They also give up the most yardage down the middle of the field where Ertz should be running plenty of slants and seams. No team is worse against TE’s than the Lions and fading Ertz would be a risk I would not advise taking. His ownership will be high but at just $3500 on DK, how could you fade him?
D/ST: Bills D ($3100) or Vikings ($3400)
I’m not going to dive deep with these two picks but they are my favorite defensive plays of the week. The Bills will be headed to LA to face mistake-prone Case Keenum and a struggling Todd Gurley. After shutting out the Patriots, $3100 is a steal for a team getting a matchup boost. As for the Vikings, do I really need to say much? Brock Osweiler isn’t very good. Period. He’s an average QB who is very susceptible to making mental errors despite the plethora of talent surrounding him. I really don’t think he will be able to handle the Vikes on the road. Play one of these two defenses if you have the capital.
My main endorsements not discussed about but should be in a few lineups at the very least:
Big Ben ($7200)- Jets secondary is destroyed, have decent run defense so Ben should be throwing a ton.
DeAndre Washington ($3400)- With Murray out, should see around 15 touches, very very cheap.
Sammie Coates ($3600)- The Jets have ranked 30th against deep balls, Sammie Coates = Deep-Ball Jesus… 4-102-1 this week.
Good Luck everyone, if you have any questions feel free to DM me on Twitter @Brett_Squires.