Fantasy Football Matrix Love/Hate 2016

Say what you want about Matthew Berry but he has my dream job and recently signed an extension through 2021. When reading the intro to his annual Love/Hate column I was absolutely shocked by the amount of times he had been rejected by different media sites. It seems like he had tried just about every avenue before finding great success. Anyways, I think it is important for fantasy analysts to not only share their thoughts, but to be able to own up to the hits and misses. Matthew does a good job of this and doesn’t shy away from his critics. Some of the hate emails he gets are actually hilarious in how overly obsessed these middle-aged people are with following someone else’s advice that didn’t workout.

After last year I wrote a column looking at all of my articles and wrote whether my call on the player was win or loss. I will do the same for this article after the season, hopefully continuing my streak of success.

This article will differ than Matthew Berry’s love hate in that I will go round by round instead of by positions. I am doing this to help the fantasy world get an idea of what players I am looking to target or avoid in my drafts. My general draft strategy comes from my work on #TruePositionalValue. If you haven't read those yet I highly recommend it. You can start here with Part 1.

1st Round Loves:

Antonio Brown, Odell Beckham, Julio Jones (CHALK): I like being contrarian if I have a good argument but I won’t even bother here. These guys are all great high upside, high floor picks. Time to move on.

A.J. Green: He is my 1.04 after the big three. The Bengals lost tons of targets from last year due to the departure of Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu. I don’t think Lafell and boyd soak those up right away as secondary options. To add onto this there is real potential for Tyler Eifert to miss the first month of football, or even start on the PUP list. This will bring it back to Greens 12’ and 13’ when he was soaking up 160+ targets. Fun Fact: anytime Green has received more than 130 targets in a season he had 10 or more TD’s.

Lamar Miller: I am generally not a fan of picking a running back in the first round, but Lamar Miller is an exception. Let’s remember the last few years for Miller. He has been a hyper efficient back in a below average offense. Fantasy owners have been begging and wondering whether coaches would give him a full workload, but it never happened. Now that he is with the Texans he is all but guaranteed to receive a massive workload. Jason Moore (@Jasonffl) of the Fantasy Footballers said it best on their podcast. “He turned down more money elsewhere because he knew he would get a big workload in Houston!”

Checking the facts, the Texans ran the ball the 5th most in the NFL last year. But if you look at the teams in the top 3, they all have rushing QBs in Cam, Tyrod, and Russell which skew their total rushing attempts. So you are looking at a team that gives their RBs the ball more than almost ANYONE else in the league.

The counter arguments of “oh well why didn’t all of the other coaches give him big workloads” is relatively irrelevant because all of those coaches were FIRED. I don’t expect him to keep the same efficiency as in Miami, but it really doesn’t matter! Look at Devonta freeman 2015. But Say Lamar does keep that efficiency. Look out, you will have the RB1 by a longshot. Miller could approach 300 carries and should have around 40 receptions.

(Took out Dez after the Romo injury.) Poor Cowboy fans.

1st Round Hates:

Rob Gronkowski: Gronk is a beast don’t get me wrong. But combine injury history with the fact that his hall of fame QB isn’t playing for the first quarter of the season tells me not to draft him. I generally don’t draft TE’s early regardless as shown by the “Don’t spend on a TE” article I published earlier this year.

Todd Gurley: See @ScottBarettDFB s twitter rant and Matt Harmons article on it. Had a similar article queued up to write but I would just be hitting on the same points. See here: https://twitter.com/ScottBarrettDFB/status/764965137379913728

Adrian Peterson: He could continue to be a monster but I won’t be taking him here. Like Todd Gurley he doesn’t catch the ball often (30 catches last year). This hurts his point totals greatly in PPR leagues. Peterson is also getting older and more tread on his tires. At some point he is going to break down. While I think he has a solid year on the ground, his lack of pass catching and the abundance of other options here is making me avoid him.

2nd Round Loves:

Keenan Allen: He was an integral part of the Chargers offense and they clearly missed him as they struggled mightily after he went down. He is a young star in the making who will be targeted heavily. 89 targets through 8 games is an incredible pace that would have put him in the top 5 if it continued. I am banking on him to be targeted just as frequently being Rivers favorite target.

Jamaal Charles: Charles is a steal at RB this year in the 2nd round. The injury history is a bit rough but it is rare to be able to get a league winning player in the 2nd round. He is a high-upside high floor pick that has consistently been above 5.0 YPC. The Chiefs have already said that when Charles is healthy he will be their guy and there won’t be a split. Being utilized heavily in the passing game I have Charles as my RB3 this year. UPDATE: A beat reporters opinion doesn’t sway me from taking Charles in the late 2nd/early 3rd.

Mike Evans: He struggled with drops and getting into the endzone last year but that shouldn’t stop you from drafting him in 2016. Him and Jameis have looked great in preseason so far and seem to be more on the same page. He is a potential top 5 WR if he continues to be targeted heavily and becomes slightly more efficient.

2nd Round Hates:

Brandin Cooks: I know I am going to get some hate for this but I really think Cooks is overpriced. I love Cooks talent but I don’t think he will get more than 140 targets. Plain and simple I don’t think the targets will be there for him to ascend into that Elite level. Brees loves to spread the ball around and he hasn’t targeted a receiver over 143 times in the last 10 years. With 140 targets you have to be banking on insane efficiency or a very high TD total. I expect him to be very efficient but he isn’t a RZ threat. I haven’t touched Cooks until the 3rd round.

Amari Cooper: Similar to Cooks, I love the talent, I just don’t think he gets more than around 140 targets in this offense. The coach loves to run the ball and now they have a very capable backup to Latavius Murray in Deandre Washington. Their defense is also going to be better, causing them to play less catch up and cause for more favorable game script. He’s being slightly over drafted at the moment because of the lack of volume and his lack of RZ usage last year was also very concerning.

Devonta Freeman: Freeman just doesn’t get me excited. He doesn’t present much upside with Tevin Coleman there because of the organizations desire to get him more involved. I also usually prefer a WR in the same spots he has been going, or a RB with more upside. His 2nd half of last year was painfully inefficient, and if he continues with that he could cede more carries to Coleman than most are expecting. Tread Cautiously.

3rd round loves:

Lesean Mccoy: He has no competition for carries on one of the most run heavy teams in the NFL. He also won’t be effected by bad game script because he is a great pass catcher. Now that Karlos is gone he won’t lose goal line work or that many passing downs. Shady has potential to finish as the #1 RB in fantasy if he is healthy.

Demaryius Thomas: DT is being highly underrated this year. People are forgetting that he is actually a very good player. Fantasy players seem to have a case of recency bias with him. It is easy to forget his monster years prior due to his lackluster 2015 and if you want to chalk all of his previous production up to Peyton Manning look back a little further. Watch some of the highlights and stats Demaryius posted with TIM TEBOW at QB in 2011. He can be a very efficient, explosive player. All reports have been good this offseason that he’s focused and ready to get back on track. He should be a low end WR1 with mid WR1 upside. If QB play becomes even average, he could be in for another great year.

T.Y. Hilton: Luck is back and the Colts figure to throw 600+ times. I like Hilton more in standard leagues but in PPR he is still a value. Drafting him here seems to be closer to his floor than his ceiling and is almost certain to return his value. One of @14TeamMockers favorite players, he pointed out to me that when luck has been playing Hiltons pace has been no less than WR16.

Sammy Watkins: In the beginning of draft season Sammy was being taken in the mid-2nd. Now he is being taken in the mid 3rd due to his foot injury. Interesting that the FF community hasn’t started taking him earlier again because he now seems to be healthy. He will play week 1 and should be 100% shortly after. This is just another FF market inefficiency that smart players can take advantage of.

3rd round Hates:

Cam Newton and Kelvin Benjamin: These both go hand in hand as I expect the Panthers offense to take a slight step back. I refuse to take a QB this early in any draft so that is my main reason for disliking cam. As far as Kelvin goes, many reports have been negative about him this offseason especially with conditioning. Spending a third on Kelvin is buying him at his ceiling. The Panthers are still a run-first offense and Benjamin was horribly inefficient as a rookie.

4th round loves:

Jeremy Maclin: All of the 4th round WRs seem to be almost surefire WR2s yet they are being drafted in the 4th round. Maclin is the #1 in his offense and has upside if they decide to throw a bit more.

Golden Tate: Despite some bland offseason reports and Marvin Jones ascension, Golden Tate should still see at least 135 targets. He doesn’t have the upside I once predicted in my early offseason article: LINK. However, in the 4th round he is still a good pick and should turn in a top 24 WR performance.

Eric Decker: He is unbelievably consistent and there is no reason to think that will change. He is another lock for WR2 numbers. From Evan Silva’s top 150 article, “Decker had a TD and/or 80+ yards in every game he played last year.”

4th Round Hates:

Matt Forte: He will be splitting time with Powell and he is already a bit banged up. Him and Powell are getting paid the same amount and Forte is only getting older. I have been avoiding Forte about as much as possible as his usage may not be enough to return value.

Jeremy Langford: Langford is fine in the 6th round, or late 5th but not in the 4th. I would rather have 5 or 6 RBs going after him. If you really like Langford, see Mike Clays article about him and that should at least get you to think otherwise.

Demarco Murray: Exotic what? I am not a fan of the Titans offense in general and if you add in the fact that Derick Henry Is there it is a big risk taking Murray in the 4th.

5th round Loves:

Michael Floyd: When healthy, Floyd was almost unstoppable. He went on a tear in the 2nd half of last year after he recovered. Weeks 8-16 he averaged 17 fantasy points a game. While I expect the 3 cardinals WRs to trade off big games Floyd has high end WR2 upside.

Arian Foster: Yeah Foster is “injury prone” but Adam Gase has a history of sticking with a lead back. Foster is a great fit for their system and should catch 50+ balls. I did a study earlier this summer about the starting RB in an Adam Gase offense and how they were utilized. So if you took the game logs of only the player who started each game over the last 3 seasons you find some interesting stats. Season long reception totals of 57, 60 and 54 are what really stuck out to me. Combine that with carry totals of 269, 294 and 241 and you have a high floor, high upside play regardless of how efficient Foster is. Handcuff him later with Ajayi to be safe.

Marvin Jones: Jones may actually outscore Tate this year. He has shown out in preseason and looked like the #1 on the offense. With a 125 target floor he’s a great WR3 with a lot of upside, especially if he can get a Calvin-like market share.

5th Round Hates:

Greg Olsen: Don’t draft a TE early. See “Don’t Spend on a TE”

Jeremy Hill: Hill is in a time share and rarely catches the ball. In order for Hill to return value he would need to become very efficient again or score 10+ TDs. Both of those aren’t something I am willing to bank on.

Jordan Matthews: I think Matthews is a good player, but if he is only playing in the slot that may cause him to play less. According to some sources it could be up to 200 snaps less over the course of a full season. There is also potential for Agholor to develop into the Maclin role he was drafted to be.

6th round loves:

Drew Brees: The most consistent Fantasy asset, Brees has finished as a top 10 QB 12 straight years in a row. Since 2010 he has thrown for over 5,000 yards 3 times and never less than 4,600. He hasn’t thrown for less than 32 TDs during that span either. Their defense is still awful and he now has one of the best supporting casts in a while. Brees has serious top 3 upside and a very high floor. I usually don’t advocate for a QB this early but he is a stud.

Tyler Lockett: I like Lockett a lot as a WR3/4 with upside for more if he can be targeted more. If you haven’t read it already, Matt Harmons reception perception on him is fantastic and should get you excited for his potential.

6th round Hates:

Travis Kelce: Kelce is a great football player but not such a great fantasy asset. Consistently underutilized Kelce shouldn’t be drafted in the first 6 rounds due to the lack of targets and the nature of the Chiefs offense. Also in case you forgot, don’t spend on a TE.

Allen Hurns: A breakout star from last year he scored 10 TDs on 60 catches. That is unheard of efficiency and will most likely not continue. He has upside as a WR3/4 but not someone I want to trust in my lineup each week.

7th + Later Round Loves:

Tyler Lockett (7th)

Desean Jackson (7th)

Ameer Abdullah (7th)

Charles Sims (8th)

Kamar Aiken (9th)

Michael Thomas (11th)

Markus Wheaton (11th)

Torrey Smith (11th)

Mohamed Sanu (12th)

Tyler Boyd (12th)

If you haven’t drafted, use this as a draft guide as sorts. If you have drafted, use this to hold me accountable at the end of the year. Best of luck this year!