True Positional Value: Don't Spend on a Tight End
Previously I looked at the True Positional Value of running backs and wide receivers, leading to some great draft strategy ideas. For this article I will be doing a collaboration with Brett Squires (@Brett_Squires), a writer at fantasy alarm. We will be looking at the the tight end position, which happens to be one of my favorites to analyze because it is so unique. It's a position where players are utilized in very different ways between blocking and running routes. (TGT per Snap Study) The TPV data is incredibly revealing and supports our claim of “Don’t Spend on a TE”.
If you need a review of what True Positional Value is, here’s the links to parts 1 and 2:
Moving on, the graph and data show the average amount of points scored since 2010 by positional ADP. For example, the player drafted as the TE1 has scored 205 points on average.
Here is a look at the rest of the data:
The data shows that Tight Ends are all over the place. I added in the dotted line to see what they should be scoring on average if it was perfectly correlated. This helps to show certain “sweet spots” where players have outperformed what they should be scoring.
But overall, tight ends are a mess. How is this for some fun statistics:
This says that a combined average of TE’s drafted as the 9th-13th have actually OUTSCORED those being drafted as the 2nd-8th. This shows how easy it is for later TE’s to break out, as well as our lack of judgement on certain players. If you want to put this in terms of correlation of round to actual points scored here is what it is:
Perfect Correlation is -1 and for comparison Wide receivers had a correlation of -.63 (More Correlated)
The main conclusion from this data is to wait on a tight end. Waiting until that sweet spot of 9th-13th of ADP seems to be ideal, but even if you chalk that specific data up to chance, waiting until after 8 or so tight ends have been drafted seems to be the best strategy.
If you still aren’t convinced, Brett breaks it down even more, going in depth with specific examples of previous breakout tight ends.
Before finding this data with FF Matrix, drafting tight ends late has been a staple throughout many of my drafts. Don’t make the mistake of buying a “consistent” early or mid-round Tight End. A good example is the Travis Kelce hype last year. Don’t get me wrong, “Baby Gronk” is a tank, but many were fooled by his size and incredible potential as he underperformed his mid-round ADP due to lack of volume. Even today his current ADP is not an accurate representation of the value he and the other mid-tier tight ends like him hold. The point is; tight ends are relatively unpredictable. The data is quite clear and the correlation is not something to overlook. Taking a look at specific late round Tight Ends who performed well over the last two years may help to continue shed some light on what you could be getting by waiting on a Tight End:
Late TE performers: 2015:
Jordan Reed 246 points,
Delanie Walker 244 points,
Gary Barnidge 237 points,
Tyler Eifert 192 points,
Ben Watson 192 points.
Late TE performers 2014:
Antonio Gates 223 points (3rd),
Martellus Bennett 221 points(4th),
Travis Kelce 177 points (6th),
Coby Fleener 176 points(7th),
Delanie Walker 176 points (8th).
Each of these players had a later ADP and performed admirably.
The trend has been similar for years and it’s time we stop thinking so much about consistency when it comes to your early-mid round selections for TE’s in fantasy. We aren’t saying wait until the end of the draft to select a TE, but a solid rule of thumb is to wait until the first 8-9 tight ends are off the board then pick a player with high upside. This gives you the ability to draft one more RB/WR and bolster the core of your team while still retaining upside at the tight end position.
Here are a few of our favorite late Tight Ends that you should be drafting and are loaded with upside.
Ladarius Green (ADP 97, TE10)
The love for Green seems pretty obvious. Martavis Bryant is suspended for the rest of the year, Bell is out for four games, and the idea of the 6’6 speedster charging down the seam is serious a nightmare for defenses. Green performed admirably after Gates went down in SD, even with Green struggling with an ankle injury. In seven games with Gates out, Green’s on-pace numbers were 62/718/9. He’s now on the Steelers who used an un-athletic Heath Miller in a medium passing volume offense. Now that the Steelers are passing more and Miller is gone, Green has the upside of any Tight End in fantasy drafts.
Zach Ertz (ADP 113, TE11)
Ertz has been one of those guys that has a hype train every year, but never lives up to the potential. Last season, he was on the brink of success and with an increase in TD’s, we can finally coin him as a player that “broke out”. Currently being drafted as the 11th TE, he’s in the sweet spot for our data. Looking at his splits in the second half of the season he had a full season pace of 243 points. This would have made him a top 3 TE.
Also, the Eagles hired Doug Petersen and more importantly, Frank Reich as their OC. Reich was able to lead the Chargers to 9th in total passing yards even with Keenan Allen going down. He kept Gates relevant and involved despite the age and injuries. Ertz is young, oozing potential and is well worth a selection in any format, especially if you intend to draft just one TE.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins (156.2, TE 19)
ASJ has been one of my favorite players in fantasy after he tested so well in my TE opportunity study published earlier this summer. Quickly summarizing, ASJ was targeted as often as players like Jordan Reed and Delanie Walker on a per snap basis but struggled to stay healthy. Not only has he been targeted often when playing, he has turned those targets into fantasy points posting 2.02 fantasy points per target.
He is the sleeper tight end that no one wants to talk about because of his character issues and getting kicked out of practice this summer. That incident definitely wasn’t good news, but the fantasy community is acting like he killed someone. He will still be on the team and Tampa Bay plans to runs tons of 2 TE sets this year with Dirk Koetter as HC. They cannot afford to bench ASJ in favor of not only one but two mediocre backups, especially if they want to maximize their passing game. He was one of the best Tight End prospects coming into the league and was previously touted by Tony Gonzales as a player with “Hall-of Fame potential”. Coming from a HOFer himself, I absolutely take that into account. ASJ can be taken very late in drafts and is one of those players with top-5 upside with all of his risk built into the low price tag.
Vance McDonald (ADP 166)
From weeks nine through 17, Vance took off and his climbing ADP still has yet to reflect that. He’s by no means a safe buy, but as one of your last players selected, he’s well worth it. His on-pace numbers from the seven games where he actually showed consistency with targets, were 53/642/7. The sky’s the limit for another great athlete who will be in a high volume, fast paced offense with little competition for targets.
