True Positional Value Part 2: Digging Deeper
The first part of this study was fun and brought some interesting data to light. Based on that data, it made sense to draft wide receivers early and often this year. However, when attempting to project the data, it didn’t end up being as useful as I had hoped due to the shift in WR Average Draft Position (ADP).
To correct this, I looked at Positional ADP (ex: WR1-WR55) and what players have averaged the last 6 years who have been drafted in those slots. For example, the players drafted as the WR4 have averaged the most points out of any RB/WR/TE position with 281 fantasy points (PPR).
This is necessary because the last couple of years we have seen a shift in WR ADP and It has gotten to the point where WR's are being drafted earlier than ever. Without this adjustment, the expectations of a "# Round WR" would be incorrect.
After re-sorting all of the data, I created a pivot table of the positional ADP averages. Charting out the RB's and WR's brings you this monstrosity:
This graph and data is awesome, but also difficult to make many “big-picture” conclusions from. I will go more in-depth into this data when I break down True Positional Value by each position.
In order to draw conclusions from these averages, I thought that it would help to re-sort them into rounds based on 2016 ADP. So the WR1-6, RB1-5 and the TE1 are all currently being drafted in the first round of 2016 fantasy drafts (FantasyFootballCalculator.com.) I then averaged that data to get the amount of points you can expect a player to score.
Here is the True Positional Value data based on current 2016 ADP:
This is a realistic look at what we can expect from taking a RB or WR in each round, based on how much that positional ADP has scored in the last 6 years on average.
If you compare this graph to the one from from the first article it is clear that the shift in WR ADP has a big effect on the amount of points you can expect from drafting a certain position in each round.
Looking at the “Distribution” of this refined TPV data we can determine the importance of each position in a similar way classic Value Based Drafting (VBD) does. I added in the “drop-off” column to determine the difference of round-round scoring.
After analyzing this data, there are definitely specific spots that make taking a RB or WR more beneficial.
I believe that a few rounds are heavily favored towards what position should be taken while some are a bit more fluid. To clarify, I will go through each round and give my analysis on what position I believe should be taken in each round based on this data.
Quick Summary:
1st: WR
2nd: Pick-em
3rd: RB
4th: WR
5th: WR
6th: RB
7th: WR
8th: WR
9th: RB
Extended Explanation:
1st round: WR
This is an easy one for me, draft an elite WR (1-6). They have a 58.3 point edge over RBs and if you wait till the 2nd round to draft your first WR, you are missing out on 52.5 points. Compare that to the RB position where you are only missing out on 2 points by waiting until the 2nd round to draft a RB.
2nd Round: Pick-em
This round is a bit of a toss up for me as the WR position is expected to score 8 more points than the RB position. However, the drop-off of waiting on a RB is more than a WR by 5.3 points. This round is honestly a “pick-em” as there are no significant indicators for either position.
3rd Round: RB
This is a heavy lean towards the RB position. There is a lull in WR scoring as they are projected 192 points which is actually less than the WRs are projected in the 4th round. Comparatively, the projected drop-off in RB scoring is 21 points.
4th Round: WR
This is another heavy lean, but this time towards the WR position. They are projected to score 205 points, only one point less than a 2nd round Wide Receiver and 48.1 more than Running Backs in the 4th round. The drop-off also slightly favors the 4th round WR.
5th Round: WR
With so many Elite QB’s falling to this round I may be leaning towards taking one (QB Section Coming Soon) especially with their expected points. But since we are only talking about WRs and RBs I will go WR again. RB’s see an increase in scoring next round while WR’s suffer a large drop-off in expected points next round.
6th Round: RB
This is the one of the few rounds that RB’s are projected to outscore WR’s (+9.7). While it isn’t a huge margin, it is significant. Not only are they projected to outscore WR’s but are projected to score more than RB’s taken a whole round earlier (+15.5).
7th Round: WR
Back to WR, they are projected to score more points than WRs a round earlier (+23) as well as RB’s in the same round (+32.2).
8th Round: WR
Big drop off at the WR position after this round, RB’s score more next round anyways.
9th Round: RB
This is another round where RB’s here are actually projected to outscore WR’s (+36.7).
Just to be clear, THIS IS NOT A STATIC DRAFT STRATEGY. For example, If the WR1-6 are the first 6 picks of the draft, I wouldn’t recommend taking another WR with the next pick. This data is strictly to give everyone an idea of what you can expect by taking a certain position in each round with current ADP.
Thanks for reading and be on the lookout for my upcoming pieces of the #TruePositionalValue series where I will break down each position in-depth including player reccomendations!
