Super Bowl 50 Analysis and Prediction

The Superbowl is finally upon us. The entire season has led up to this one game. It’s crazy to think about the two very different paths that both of these teams have taken to get here. The Panthers being absolutely dominant in every game (except against the Falcons), while the Broncos have been on a roller coaster. Going into week 16 the Broncos were in danger of not even making the playoffs! Their season has been a crazy one, riding mostly on the backs of their defense to get them this far.

So, who is going to win this game? The panthers opened as 3.5 point favorites in many sports books and the public jumped all over that. The spread moved all the way up to -6 in many books but was swiftly bet back down to 5.5 by the sharps. I personally think the spread will close at -5, but the majority of the bets have still yet to come in, as most do in the 48 hours before the start of the game.

I am going to break down a few keys to what each team can do to win the game, and give a prediction at the end with what I think will happen!

How the Panthers win the game:

The Panthers dominated so many of the teams they played and it has been a sight to watch. Everyone was down on them coming into the year, especially their offense, because of the pre-season injury to their best receiver Kelvin Benjamin. The rest is history as they went on to be the #1 scoring offense in the NFL. The Panthers averaged 31.2 points per game during the regular season, and have put up 31 and 49 points in their two playoff games.

On offense the Panthers need to establish a solid running game, but not just by pounding Jonathan Stewart. It will be important to use a variety of running plays to keep the Denver defense off balance. The Broncos have not faced a mobile QB this year, and will not be used to the barrage of trick plays, read options and triple options. Even if the Panthers establish a solid ground attack, their receivers will still have to step up big time against this secondary that plays a lot of very good man defense. All year the Panthers receivers have been doubted but seem to answer the haters just about every time. As everyone saw last week, Denver’s edge rushers are unbelievable. They made Tom Brady look like a child. Luckily for Cam, the Panthers o-line has been playing fantastic lately and will stand more of a chance then the Pats did to neutralize them. Giving Cam time to throw the ball without pressure will be a huge key to their success and I will talk more about that in Denver’s section.

Another key on offense will be to get into the Redzone. While this sounds obvious, this is where one of the biggest advantages is held by the Panthers. The Broncos defense is #1 in about every defensive category, besides red zone efficiency, in which they are 13th. Red zone efficiency has been one of their main weaknesses especially as of late. To go along with that, the Panthers have been fantastic in the Redzone this year.

On defense the Panthers need to stop Denver’s run game. The Denver offense revolves around it. Without it, Carolina will be able to tee off on Peyton and make him look like he did in the beginning of the season.

The Panthers have consistently put teams down 14 points at half or more recently in the first quarter, which has forced the other team to be more aggressive. 87% of their takeaways have come from interceptions, which is partly due to the aggressiveness of the opposing team trying to get back into the game.

The Panthers win this game by doing what they have done all year, pounce on a team early, and force turnovers to get the game out of hand. If the Panthers can capitalize on a few early red zone trips and force the broncos the throw to get back into game, this game could be an absolute blowout.

How the Broncos win the game:

The Broncos were considered one of the worst #1 seeds in a while in the playoffs. Everyone knew their defense was unbelievable but there were major question marks on offense. Peyton got benched midway through the season after leading the NFL in interceptions. After the Brock experiment was fairly uneventful, and Peyton got healthy he regained the starting job. He hasn’t thrown a pick in his two playoff games so far, which has been a huge key to Denver’s success.

On offense, the Broncos need to control the clock and avoid turnovers. They need to run the ball as much as possible and convert key third downs. If they are able to keep Peyton as strictly a game-manager and not force him to throw it, the Broncos have a good chance to win. It is very interesting to see that the only team to beat the Panthers (Falcons) ran a similar style offense as Gary Kubiak runs. Devonta Freeman had 22 carries the game they won and while it only resulted in 73 yards and a touchdown, they were able to control the game. Freeman also had only been averaging a little over 3 Y.P.C. since week 13. Compare that to C.J. Anderson who has been averaging close to 6 YPC since after the bye, the Broncos may be able to find some success on the ground. The Broncos should try to run the ball close to 30 + times if they want to succeed. Combine this with a few clutch throws from Peyton and the Broncos should be able to put up around 20 points.

On defense the Broncos need to pressure Cam. The Panthers have played the weakest defensive schedule in the league this year which may have aided the #1 scoring offense stat. The Broncos have the #1 defense this year (points against). When healthy, which they are now, they are one of the most complete defenses in the past few years.

So why is it important for the Panthers to protect Cam? According to PFF (ProFootballFocus) If you look in depth at Cams stats under pressure, “Newton’s passer rating is a meager 71.1 (six TDs, six INTs) under pressure this season, and when he is forced to scramble, the former Auburn star has not been a dynamic threat this season. Newton was forced to scramble 58 times this year, converting 29 of those into runs for 222 yards; but as a passer when scrambling, he has completed only nine passes for 126 with no touchdowns, one interception, and only two passes of 20 yards or more.”

This plays very nicely into what the Broncos do very well, which is rushing the passer and putting pressure on the QB. While the Panthers o-line been able to contain some good edge pass-rushers, they haven’t played against a unit like the Broncos, who have the ability and depth to bring constant pressure.

Another key for the Broncos defense to be successful is for them to force the Panther into 2nd and long. There is a podcast with Evan Silva and Warren Sharp, which I highly recommend listening to, in which they brought up a very interesting stat about the Panthers. “They are the third-worst team on second and long, only in front of the Lions and Chiefs. Most of their drives that have a second and long end in a punt.”

Overall, Denver’s keys to success on defense are to pressure Cam, force losses on first downs, and make sure that the corners get help over the top from safety’s. Denver’s corners should be able to get lock down the Panther receivers, as long as they don’t get beat deep.

How I expect the game to go:

I expect this game to be closer then the public thinks. 5.5 points is too much for me, and if you are a gambler, buy up to 6 or 7 just to be sure and expect the Broncos to cover. The Broncos have had two weeks to get healthy and should be able to pressure Cam. The Panthers will have minimal success on offense compared to their recent outings and Cam will throw at least one interception. The Broncos will control the clock and run 30+ times. I think it is going to be a nail-biter but I like the Broncos to win on a last second field goal.

PICK: 20-17 BRONCOS